Aris vs Karmiotissa: match statistics

Aris have the edge in chance creation at home, averaging 1.57 xG and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with Karmiotissa’s 0.94 xG and 6 shots on target away from home. However, the hosts are highly unstable defensively: they concede as many as 3 goals per home game, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches. Karmiotissa are also unimpressive at the back, allowing an average of 2 goals away from home, but their recent run is more solid, with just 1 defeat in 5 matches and 3 draws. Neither team has won a match in its respective home or away fixtures, while the visitors have drawn 100% of their away games so far. The high average goal figures—4.5 in Aris’ home matches and 4 in Karmiotissa’s away fixtures—point to an open contest, but a draw remains the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is positive, as Karmiotissa had both teams scoring in 100% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for Aris, while both teams have conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game. Neither side has kept a clean sheet, which clearly increases the likelihood that at least one of the opponent’s chances will be converted. In their last five matches, Aris averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, with BTTS landing in 80% of those games. Karmiotissa scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, but Aris allows opponents an xG of 1.25, while the visitors create an average xG of 1.17, making their goal a realistic scenario. The hosts also have greater attacking potential, recording an xG of 1.69 in their last five matches compared with Karmiotissa’s average xG conceded of 1.39. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a game in which both teams score.

Aris have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches, while also conceding as many as 2.6, resulting in an average of 4.4 goals per game. Karmiotissa scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, but Aris have yet to keep a clean sheet in the current campaign, and their average xG against stands at 1.69. Both teams have recorded 100% of matches with at least two goals so far this season, while Karmiotissa have had 100% of their games finish Over 2.5 goals. The projected total of 2.85 goals is also close to the league average of 3.1, which is why the strongest signal remains Over 1.5. The 2.5 line offers positive potential, but the visitors' defensive form—conceding an average of 1.2 goals across their last five appearances—reduces its edge compared with the lower line.

Karmiotissa has the clearer first-half profile: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 40% of games, while Aris were trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 60%. The visitors conceded an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time, while the hosts scored only 0.2 during that period, which supports a Karmiotissa lead at the break. Aris are considerably more dangerous after half-time, however, scoring an average of 1.6 goals in their last five appearances, whereas Karmiotissa managed only 0.2. At the same time, the hosts have conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match in their recent run, making a turnaround more likely than a definitive victory. The strongest scenario is therefore Karmiotissa leading at half-time and the match ending in a draw, further supported by the visitors’ 60% draw rate across their last five matches.