Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: match statistics
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arka Gdynia played Polonia Warszawa in 1. Liga (Poland). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Stadion Miejski. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Arka Gdynia: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Polonia Warszawa: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arka Gdynia scores 1.22 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Polonia Warszawa scores 1.67 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arka Gdynia 33%, Polonia Warszawa 67%. Over 2.5: Arka Gdynia 44%, Polonia Warszawa 56%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Polonia Warszawa has higher xG: 1.81 vs 1.39. Arka Gdynia: 12.0 shots per match, Polonia Warszawa: 16.0.
Match halves
Arka Gdynia: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.44. Polonia Warszawa: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
Arka Gdynia: 16-30 (3 goals). Polonia Warszawa: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Arka Gdynia are favourites primarily because of their home form: across 4 such matches, they have recorded 2 wins and 2 draws, scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding just 0.5. Polonia Warszawa do sit higher in the table, in 6th place compared with 12th, but they average 1.25 goals away from home and have lost 2 of their 4 away matches. The hosts are also more clinical in front of goal: in home matches, they average 5 shots on target with a 19% shot conversion rate, while the visitors average 3.25 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate away from home. The gap in the quality of chances created is smaller, with Arka's home xG at 1.59 and Polonia's away xG at 1.36; Polonia also allow chances with a lower xG value, 1.14 compared with Arka's 1.47. This tempers confidence in the pick, but Arka's finishing and home record to date point towards a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Arka have recorded BTTS in 80% of their home matches, while Polonia have done so in 50% of their away games; across the last 5 matches for both teams, the rate was 60%. The hosts score an average of 2.0 goals at home and have yet to fail to score in any such match, making a goal from them likely. Polonia average 1.25 goals away from home, while Arka concede 1.6 at home, giving the visitors a genuine chance to respond. In addition, over their last 5 matches, the teams conceded an average of 1.4 and 1.6 goals respectively, although the fact that Polonia failed to score in 25% of their away games remains a risk for the BTTS - Yes pick. Nevertheless, the attacking figures and the frequency of goals at both ends point towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this total was reached in every Arka match in the sample, although it occurred in 50% of Polonia’s matches. Arka scores an average of 2.0 goals, with an xG of 2.16; it also averages 6.6 shots on target per match, supporting its contribution to the goal tally. Polonia scores an average of 1.25 goals, while Arka concedes 1.6, making an away goal a realistic prospect as well. In the last five matches for both teams, 60% ended with at least three goals, but the more cautious Over 1.5 line offers a clearer edge than Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Arka were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches and averaged just 0.4 goals before half-time. A later home win is supported by a clear edge in chance creation: Arka’s average xG is 2.16 compared with Polonia’s 1.36, while their shots on target total 6.6 against 3.25. Arka average 1.6 goals after the break at home, giving them the potential to settle a closely contested match in the second half. However, this is not a risk-free selection, as Polonia have won 75% of their second halves away from home and conceded an average of just 0.25 goals in them. Despite the visitors’ solid performances after the break, the combination of Arka’s frequent half-time draws and greater attacking strength gives the X/1 scenario the highest individual probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arka Gdynia | Polonia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Polonia Warszawa is 250% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.4 pts / match - Polonia Warszawa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Polonia Warszawa is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.67 goals / match - Polonia Warszawa
Arka Gdynia is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.33 goals / match - Polonia Warszawa
Arka Gdynia scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Polonia Warszawa keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
Polonia Warszawa scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Arka Gdynia keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arka Gdynia
Over / Under - Polonia Warszawa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Arka Gdynia is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.11 pts / match - Polonia Warszawa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arka Gdynia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Polonia Warszawa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Arka Gdynia | Liga | Polonia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.44 | 2.73 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 56% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 49% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 25% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 77% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 75% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa?
The 1. Liga match finished Arka Gdynia 1:2 Polonia Warszawa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa?
Arka Gdynia score 1.22 goals per game on average and Polonia Warszawa 1.67. The 1. Liga average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Arka Gdynia's matches and 67% of Polonia Warszawa's.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa in?
Over the last 5 games Arka Gdynia have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Polonia Warszawa 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.