Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin: match statistics
Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arka Gdynia played Zagłębie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The match was played on 7 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Arka Gdynia: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Zagłębie Lubin: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arka Gdynia scores 0.96 and concedes 1.69 goals per match. Zagłębie Lubin scores 1.54 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arka Gdynia 46%, Zagłębie Lubin 54%. Over 2.5: Arka Gdynia 58%, Zagłębie Lubin 50%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Zagłębie Lubin has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.26. Arka Gdynia: 10.3 shots per match, Zagłębie Lubin: 11.8.
Match halves
Arka Gdynia: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.58. Zagłębie Lubin: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.81.
Goals by minute
Arka Gdynia: 46-60 (6 goals). Zagłębie Lubin: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ekstraklasa: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (Zagłębie Lubin) due to their clear advantage in key offensive metrics and recent form. Zagłębie have scored 40 goals this season versus Arka’s 25; in the last 5 matches they’ve scored 7 goals and won 3, while Arka scored 6 and won only 1 of their last 5, averaging 1 point per game versus 1.8 for the visitors. Away, the visitors average 11.85 shots per game with 4 on target and xG 1.4, whereas Arka at home average 10.23 shots with 3.69 on target and xG 1.3, giving Zagłębie the edge in chance quality. Arka do have home strengths — 1.46 goals per game, lower goals conceded per game 1.08, higher conversion 14% versus the visitors’ 10%, and a lower share of matches without a goal (15% vs 23%) — however their worse goals conceded in the last 5 (Arka conceded 8, Zagłębie 3) and the visitors’ better points form favor the away side.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In the Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin fixture the signal for BTTS - Yes is strong: Zagłębie records BTTS in 62% of matches, Arka in 46%, while the league average is 57%, supporting a better-than-50% probability that both teams will score. Offensive metrics and xG indicate Arka has average xG 1.46 and averages 11.77 shots (3.92 on target) with 1.85 goals and a 16% conversion rate, whereas Zagłębie posts xG 1.40, 11.85 shots (4.0 on target) and 1.23 goals with a 10% conversion, so both sides create similar chances while Arka is more efficient. A caveat from the last 5 matches: Arka scored 6 and conceded 8 (1.2 and 1.6 per game), while Zagłębie scored 7 and conceded 3 (1.4 and 0.6), highlighting the visitors’ better defensive form. Season-long goal figures underline the ambiguity: Arka 25 scored and 44 conceded, Zagłębie 40 scored and 30 conceded, meaning there is both potential for goals from the visitors and a tendency for Arka to concede. Considering the strong league-level signal (57%), Zagłębie’s high BTTS rate (62%) and Arka’s season-long concession tendency, but also acknowledging Zagłębie’s solid defense in the last 5 matches, I assess BTTS at 64% vs 36% and tip BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 2.70 for the match (Arka 1.62, Zagłębie 1.08), calculated as the average of goals scored by Arka at home (1.85) and goals conceded by Zagłębie away (1.38), and analogously for the visitors (1.23 scored, 0.92 conceded by Arka). Both teams’ xG are similar: Arka xG_for 1.46, Zagłębie xG_for 1.40, with xG_against of 1.84 and 1.81 respectively, and Arka has higher shot efficiency (conversion 16% vs 10%), which can elevate actual goal output. Seasonal rates show frequent matches with at least 2 goals: Over 1.5 is 77% for Arka and 69% for Lubin, and a Poisson model with λ=2.70 gives ~75% probability for over 1.5, so the signal on this line is strong and consistent with the data. Over 2.5 hovers around 51% (seasonal 46%/54%), and over 3.5 about 29% (seasonal 38%/31%), therefore the 1.5 line (over) offers the best probability-to-risk ratio and is recommended.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Arka led at the break in 6 matches (46%) and scores an average of 0.92 goals by half-time versus 0.54 for Zagłębie, which clearly favors the home side in the first 45 minutes. Over the full match Arka averages 1.85 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Zagłębie records 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded — the goal profiles (1.85–0.92 vs 1.23–1.38) speak in Arka’s favor. Arka’s finishing efficiency is higher (16% shot conversion versus 10% for the visitors) with a similar xG (1.46 vs 1.40), suggesting the home team converts chances better. Additionally, Arka scores early (7 goals in 0–15 min and 5 goals in 31–45), while Zagłębie has lost 38% of matches and concedes 1.38 goals per game, so the most likely outcome is Arka leading at half-time and maintaining the win to full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arka Gdynia | Zagłębie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Zagłębie Lubin is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.8 pts / match - Zagłębie Lubin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Zagłębie Lubin is 60% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.54 goals / match - Zagłębie Lubin
Zagłębie Lubin is 47% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.69 goals / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.15 goals / match - Zagłębie Lubin
Arka Gdynia scores in 58% of matches (15 of 26 matches), while Zagłębie Lubin keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Zagłębie Lubin scores in 73% of matches (19 of 26 matches), while Arka Gdynia keeps a clean sheet in 23% (6 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arka Gdynia
Over / Under - Zagłębie Lubin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Zagłębie Lubin is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.04 pts / match - Arka Gdynia · 1.42 pts / match - Zagłębie Lubin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arka Gdynia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Zagłębie Lubin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arka Gdynia
Zagłębie Lubin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ekstraklasa).
Teams vs league
| Arka Gdynia | Liga | Zagłębie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.65 | 2.73 | • 2.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 58% | ▼ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 52% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 23% | 25% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 77% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arka Gdynia 0 - 0 - 1 Zagłębie Lubin. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The Ekstraklasa match finished Arka Gdynia 3:1 Zagłębie Lubin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Arka Gdynia score 0.96 goals per game on average and Zagłębie Lubin 1.54. The Ekstraklasa average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Arka Gdynia's matches and 54% of Zagłębie Lubin's.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Zagłębie Lubin in?
Over the last 5 games Arka Gdynia have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Zagłębie Lubin 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The statistical background for Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.