Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli: match statistics

Arminia Bielefeld have a clearly superior record over their last five matches, collecting 7 points compared with St. Pauli’s 3, with the visitors failing to win any of those five games. At home, the hosts won their only match so far, scoring 3 goals and keeping a clean sheet, while St. Pauli have only drawn away from home, conceding an average of 2 goals per game. Arminia are also creating higher-quality chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.82 compared with the visitors’ 1.49, while their defence allows just 0.95 xG, significantly fewer than St. Pauli’s 1.98. The visitors can still pose a threat, averaging 6 shots on target away from home compared with Arminia’s 5, but their run of three draws and two defeats, along with 9 goals conceded in their last five matches, points in favour of the hosts. Arminia’s advantage in chance quality, defensive performance at home and current form indicates a home win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

Both teams have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches in the current campaign, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Arminia average 1.0 goal at home, but create a high volume of chances worth 2.20 xG and register 6.5 shots on target per match, while St. Pauli allow opponents 1.98 xG. The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals away from home, while Arminia’s defence concedes 1.5 goals per match, with 1.45 xG against them. BTTS landed in 60% of Arminia’s and 80% of St. Pauli’s last five matches, with both teams conceding 1.6 and 1.8 goals per match respectively. This is a clearly stronger signal for goals at both ends than the league-wide BTTS average of 56%.

The edge is with Over 1.5, as both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their matches in the current competition. Arminia have scored 11 goals and conceded 8 in their last five matches, producing a high average of 3.8 goals per game, while St. Pauli’s record across their last five outings stands at 6:9. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 19.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target, with an average xG of 2.20; St. Pauli respond with an average xG of 1.49. Over 2.5 goals has landed in Arminia’s last 5 matches and in 60% of the visitors’ recent games, while the league average is a high 3.59 goals. However, the 1.5 line offers the safest signal, as just two goals are needed to cover it, with both defences clearly vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.5 and 2.0 goals respectively.

In their last five matches, Arminia have taken the lead at the break in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, while St. Pauli have managed just 0.6 goals during that period. The hosts are also creating significantly more high-quality chances: their average xG stands at 2.20 compared with 1.49 for the visitors, while shots on target are 6.5 versus 6.0. St. Pauli have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match across their last five outings and have failed to win any of them, recording 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. After the break, Arminia score an average of 0.8 goals, while the visitors allow opponents 1.4, which supports the hosts’ ability to maintain or extend their lead. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore Arminia/Arminia (1/1), with the hosts leading at half-time and securing the win at the final whistle.