Arsenal vs Burnley: match statistics
Arsenal vs Burnley: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arsenal played Burnley in Premier League (England). The match was played on 18 May 2026. Venue: Emirates Stadium. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Arsenal: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Burnley: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arsenal scores 1.89 and concedes 0.72 goals per match. Burnley scores 1.03 and concedes 2.03. League average: 2.77 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arsenal 47%, Burnley 58%. Over 2.5: Arsenal 53%, Burnley 53%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Arsenal has higher xG: 1.70 vs 1.09. Arsenal: 14.5 shots per match, Burnley: 9.3.
Match halves
Arsenal: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.11. Burnley: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Arsenal: 76-90+ (16 goals). Burnley: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.77 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Arsenal is the clear favorite: at home they score an average of 2.22 goals per game and have 68 goals this season, while Burnley score an average of 1.11 goals away and have 37 goals in the season. Defensively the home side has a large advantage — Arsenal concedes 0.61 goals per game at home (26 conceded this season) and have a 56% clean sheet rate, whereas Burnley concede 2.5 goals away (73 conceded) and have recorded no away clean sheets (0%). Chance quality also favors Arsenal: at home they generate xG 1.85, 16.22 shots per game and 5.11 shots on target, while Burnley away have xG 0.99, 8 shots and 3.06 shots on target; conversion rate is similar (14%), indicating the difference is mainly due to chance volume. In the last 5 matches Arsenal have 4 wins and 1 draw (13 points, 2.6 per game), and Burnley 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (1 point, 0.2 per game), with Arsenal conceding 1 goal and Burnley 12 in that period. Considering the advantage in goals scored and conceded (2.22 vs 1.11 scored home/away, 0.61 vs 2.5 conceded), higher shot volume (16.22 vs 8) and better form, I forecast a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - No with a 60% probability because Arsenal have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 home matches (0.2 per game), only 20% of their games featured both teams scoring, and they have won 4 of 5 (form: wdwww). Burnley have a seasonally high away BTTS rate — 78% — and average 1.11 goals away, which nominally supports a 'Yes' scenario. However, the visitors have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches (0.8 avg) and conceded 12, with form 'lllld', indicating finishing issues. Arsenal attempt more shots (10.56 vs 8.0) and have a recent xG of 1.53 per game, while Burnley concede 1.91 xG on the road, so the hosts have a real chance to score and keep a clean sheet. Considering these contrasting signals, I assign 60% to 'No' and 40% to 'Yes' as the most likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (1.19 for Arsenal and 0.99 for Burnley) combined with opponent defenses (Burnley concedes 1.91 xG, Arsenal 1.87 xG) yields expected goals of 1.55 for the home team and 1.43 for the away team, totaling 2.98 goals. From this distribution the probability of Over 1.5 goals is about 80%, Over 2.5 about 57% and Over 3.5 about 35%. Seasonal data support a tendency for goals: Arsenal had 72% of home matches with Over 1.5 goals, while Burnley had 100% of away matches over 1.5; additionally Burnley conceded 73 goals this season versus 68 scored by Arsenal. In the last 5 matches Arsenal scored 7 and conceded 1 (avg 1.4 and 0.2), whereas Burnley scored 4 and conceded 12 (avg 0.8 and 2.4), which increases the risk of more goals against Burnley. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — it has roughly an 80% chance and is supported by both xG (1.55/1.43) and the seasonal 72%/100% figures for the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Looking at form, the home team have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches (80% wins) and led at the break in 4 of 5 games (80%), while the away team have lost 4 of their last 5 (80% losses). Creativity metrics show the home side with 1.19 xG versus the visitors' 0.99 and an average of 10.56 shots for the hosts versus 8.0 for the guests, indicating an advantage in chance creation, although the visitors are more efficient (conversion 14% vs 9%). In first halves over the last 5 matches the home team averaged 1.2 goals and conceded 0.0, while the away team had 0.4 scored and 0.8 conceded at the break, so I expect the hosts to have the lead after 45 minutes. However, note the visitors score on average 2.17 goals after the break over the season and register at least one goal in the second half in 94% of matches, increasing the risk of a late goal. Considering the 80% HT leads and 80% wins for the hosts in the last 5, the xG advantage and shot volume, the most likely scenario is 1/1, therefore I recommend this market.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arsenal | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Arsenal is 800% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Arsenal · 0.2 pts / match - Burnley
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arsenal is 83% better for: goals scored per match.
1.89 goals / match - Arsenal · 1.03 goals / match - Burnley
Arsenal is 182% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.72 goals / match - Arsenal · 2.03 goals / match - Burnley
Arsenal scores in 92% of matches (33 of 36 matches), while Burnley keeps a clean sheet in 11% (4 of 36 matches).
Burnley scores in 64% of matches (23 of 36 matches), while Arsenal keeps a clean sheet in 50% (18 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arsenal
Over / Under - Burnley
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Arsenal is 158% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.78 pts / match - Arsenal · 0.69 pts / match - Burnley
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arsenal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Burnley - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 11%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arsenal
Burnley
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Arsenal | Liga | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.61 | 2.77 | ▲ 3.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 56% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 26% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | • 72% | 71% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arsenal 1 - 0 - 0 Burnley. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arsenal vs Burnley?
The Premier League match finished Arsenal 1:0 Burnley. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal score 1.89 goals per game on average and Burnley 1.03. The Premier League average is 2.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Arsenal's matches and 58% of Burnley's.
What form are Arsenal and Burnley in?
Over the last 5 games Arsenal have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Burnley 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arsenal vs Burnley?
The statistical background for Arsenal vs Burnley — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.