Arzignano Valchiampo vs Pro Vercelli: match statistics

Arzignano Valchiampo shows superior season numbers: 14 wins, 8 draws and 15 losses with 47 goals scored and 48 conceded, while Pro Vercelli has 13 wins, 7 draws, 17 losses and 39 scored versus 52 conceded. In the last 5 matches the hosts have 4 wins and 1 draw (7 scored, 3 conceded; 2.6 pts per game), whereas the visitors have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (4 scored, 6 conceded; 1.0 pt per game), which clearly favors Arzignano’s form. At home Arzignano averages 1.22 goals scored and concedes 1.28 with 28% clean sheets and 4.06 shots on target, while Pro Vercelli away averages 1.11 scored and concedes 1.72 with only 11% clean sheets and 3.83 shots on target. xG values are similar (home xG 1.37 vs away xG 1.34; xG against 1.39 vs 1.40) and conversion is ~11% for both, so chance quality is comparable, but Arzignano’s edge comes from recent finishing and better defense (3 goals conceded in 5 matches vs 6 for the visitors). Based on this I tip a home win and estimate probabilities of 60% for Arzignano, 25% for a draw and 15% for Pro Vercelli.

Looking at seasonal metrics, Arzignano has BTTS in 32% of home matches, while Pro Vercelli records BTTS in 61% of away matches (32% vs 61%), which gives a mixed signal. Crucially, Arzignano have kept a clean sheet in 42% of games and conceded on average only 0.6 goals in the last 5 matches (3 conceded in 5), whereas Pro Vercelli concede 1.72 goals on the season and 1.2 in the last 5, increasing the likelihood the visitors will fail to score. Offensively, the combined seasonal xG of both teams is 1.57 + 1.34 = 2.91, and Pro Vercelli have a season shot conversion of 11% versus the home side’s 7%; however, in the last 5 matches Pro Vercelli have xG 1.67 with only 0.8 goals scored, indicating a finishing problem. In summary, a strong 'No' signal comes from Arzignano’s high clean sheet rate (42%) and Pro Vercelli’s poor recent real efficiency (0.8 goals from xG 1.67), despite the visitors’ higher seasonal BTTS (61%), therefore I estimate 60% for 'No' and 40% for 'Yes'.

The forecast is based on xG: Arzignano has xG_for 1.57 versus Pro Vercelli xG_against 1.40, translating to approximately 1.49 expected goals for the home side; Pro Vercelli has xG_for 1.34 versus Arzignano xG_against 1.27, so expected away goals ≈1.31, total ≈2.80. Season metrics show Arzignano have 63% of matches Over 1.5 goals and Pro Vercelli 83% — average 73%, which aligns with the Over 1.5 projection (≈77%). The 2.5 line is less clear: the visitors have 56% of matches Over 2.5, the hosts 32% (seasonal average 44%), while the xG model gives a moderate edge to Over 2.5 (≈53%); Over 3.5 remains rare (seasonally 21%/28%, my model ≈31%). Form further supports a goal-involved game: Arzignano in their last 5 scored 7 and conceded 3 (1.4/0.6), Pro Vercelli scored 4 and conceded 6 (0.8/1.2) with last5 xG for the visitors 1.67, suggesting the away side create chances. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; expected goals 1.49 (home) and 1.31 (away), total 2.80.

Arzignano were level at half-time in 10 of 19 matches (53%), so the most common score at the 45-minute mark is a draw. In the second half the home side have the advantage: average xG 1.57 versus 1.34 for Pro Vercelli, more shots per match (13.42 vs 10.5) and an average of 0.68 goals scored after the break; 74% of the hosts’ matches produce at least one goal in the second half. The visitors, meanwhile, concede on average 1.06 goals after the break and have a lower average points tally in the second half (0.89), which reduces their ability to hold a result. Over the last five matches Arzignano’s form is W W D W W with an 80% win rate and they led at half-time in 40% of those games, so the scenario draw at half-time and home win (X/1) is assessed as the strongest.