AS Kigali vs Gasogi United: match statistics
AS Kigali vs Gasogi United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AS Kigali played Gasogi United in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 24 April 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
AS Kigali: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Gasogi United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
AS Kigali scores 0.71 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Gasogi United scores 0.70 and concedes 1.11. League average: 2.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AS Kigali 36%, Gasogi United 33%. Over 2.5: AS Kigali 25%, Gasogi United 26%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
AS Kigali has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.08. AS Kigali: 7.8 shots per match, Gasogi United: 5.5.
Match halves
AS Kigali: half-time lead 4%, second-half goals 0.50. Gasogi United: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.37.
Goals by minute
AS Kigali: 61-75 (5 goals). Gasogi United: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.05 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw: AS Kigali generates significantly more chances at home (average xG 1.39) than Gasogi away (xG 0.83), but the hosts convert poorly — their home goals average is only 0.54 with a conversion rate of about 6%. The visitors take far fewer shots (on average 4.45 away and 2.27 on target), but are much more efficient (conversion around 22% and 0.85 goals away), so they have real chances from limited opportunities. Defensively both teams concede on average 0.92 goals in home/away matches, however in the last 5 games AS Kigali has let in 8 goals versus Gasogi's 4, which gives the visitors a short-term defensive edge. Additionally the hosts have as many as 62% draws at home and only 8% wins at their own stadium, and both sides average 1 point in their last 5 matches, which favors a split of points and a low-scoring outcome. Therefore I assess the probability of a draw as highest (50%), Gasogi win 30% and AS Kigali win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
After analyzing statistics and xG I recommend the No (No BTTS) market with a probability of 56% versus 44% for Yes. Based on xG, expected goals are approximately 1.155 for AS Kigali (home xG_for 1.29 and away xG_against 1.02) and 1.02 for Gasogi (away xG_for 0.83 and home xG_against 1.21), which translates to chances of scoring at least one goal of ~68.5% and ~63.9% respectively, yielding BTTS around 44% (0.685*0.639≈0.438). However, seasonal statistics reduce this scenario: season BTTS for AS Kigali 29% and Gasogi 38% are below the league average 45%, and the league has a high clean sheet expected rate of 68%. The last 5 matches show divergence – hosts have last5 BTTS 60% and average 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, while visitors have last5 BTTS 20% with 0.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, suggesting visitors rarely score. The shots difference 7.92 vs 4.45 and conversion rate 7% vs 22% means that despite more chances hosts finish poorly, but the visitors’ low efficiency in recent matches and the high league clean sheet rate favor choosing No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
AS Kigali scores an average of 0.57 goals this season, Gasogi United 0.85, while xG is 1.29 (AS Kigali) and 0.83 (Gasogi), indicating a finishing inefficiency by the home side. Seasonal share of Over 2.5 goals matches is 29% for AS Kigali and 23% for Gasogi (average ~26%), and the league average goals per game is 2.05, so historically high totals are rare. In the last 5 matches AS Kigali scored 5 goals (1.0 avg), Gasogi 2 goals (0.4 avg), combined 7 goals, i.e. a joint average of 1.4 goals per match, which further supports a lower total. Considering xG against (AS Kigali 1.21, Gasogi 1.02), shots per game (7.92 vs 4.45) and shots on target (2.62 vs 2.27), I estimate about 1.05 goals for the home team and 0.70 for the visitors (total 1.75). This translates to estimates of ~52% for Over 1.5, ~25% for Over 2.5 and ~10% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Under 2.5 (around 75% probability).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and an away victory at Full-Time (X/2). Half-time draws are common: the home side were level at the break in 50% of matches, the visitors in 54%, and in the last five meetings both teams were level at half-time in 100% of cases. AS Kigali produces higher xG (1.29 versus 0.83 for Gasogi) and averages more shots per game (7.92 vs 4.45), but has a much lower conversion rate (7% versus 22%), which limits the hosts’ chance of taking an early lead. This in turn favors the visitors after the break: Gasogi win second halves in 31% of cases versus 7% for AS Kigali and average 1.15 points in second halves compared to 0.71 for the home side. Additionally, the visitors have a higher win rate and a higher season points average (31% wins and 1.31 points per game versus 21% and 0.93 for the hosts), so the X/2 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario is the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AS Kigali | Gasogi United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AS Kigali scores in 57% of matches (16 of 28 matches), while Gasogi United keeps a clean sheet in 30% (8 of 27 matches).
Gasogi United scores in 48% of matches (13 of 27 matches), while AS Kigali keeps a clean sheet in 39% (11 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AS Kigali
Over / Under - Gasogi United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gasogi United is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.82 pts / match - AS Kigali · 1.19 pts / match - Gasogi United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AS Kigali - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 4% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Gasogi United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AS Kigali
Gasogi United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| AS Kigali | Liga | Gasogi United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.82 | 2.05 | ▼ 1.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 45% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 35% | ▼ 26% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 34% | ▼ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 43% | 60% | ▼ 48% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 71% | 69% | • 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AS Kigali 0 - 1 - 0 Gasogi United. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AS Kigali vs Gasogi United?
The National Soccer League match finished AS Kigali 0:0 Gasogi United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AS Kigali vs Gasogi United?
AS Kigali score 0.71 goals per game on average and Gasogi United 0.70. The National Soccer League average is 2.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 36% of AS Kigali's matches and 33% of Gasogi United's.
What form are AS Kigali and Gasogi United in?
Over the last 5 games AS Kigali have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Gasogi United 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AS Kigali vs Gasogi United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.