Ascoli vs Nuova Monterosi: match statistics

Ascoli are the favorites: at home they rank 1st and have a 65% home win rate and 59% of home matches without conceding, translating to just 0.53 goals conceded per game. The hosts have won 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals (2.4 per game) and averaging 3 points in that run, while Nuova Monterosi have in their last 5 matches 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, scoring 4 goals (0.8 per game) and averaging 1.2 points. Ascoli’s attack produces on average 15.06 shots and 5.06 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate and 1.83 xG per game, whereas the visitors as an away team register only 8.65 shots, 3.29 on target and 1.12 xG, indicating a clear home advantage in quality of chances. The defensive gap is significant: Monterosi concede on average 1.00 goals away with 1.72 xG against, while Ascoli at home concede 0.53 with 0.96 xG against, collectively suggesting game control and higher probability of a home victory.

The analysis favors the 'No' outcome (no BTTS). Ascoli have scored 12 goals (2.4 avg) and conceded only 3 (0.6) in their last 5 matches, while Nuova Monterosi have 4 scored (0.8) and 4 conceded (0.8) in the same period. Seasonal BTTS rates are 35% for Ascoli and 47% for Nuova, and both teams have 41% of matches with a clean sheet; additionally the league shows a 61% rate of matches without conceding, which supports a no-BTTS solution. Season totals: Ascoli 62 scored and 22 conceded, Nuova 28 scored and 32 conceded. xG shows Ascoli creating 1.35 xG and allowing 1.36 xG versus Nuova creating 1.12 xG and allowing 1.72 xG, together suggesting a higher probability that the hosts will score while the visitors may not. Although Nuova have a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 6%) and the league BTTS is 49%, the form balance and high clean sheet rates incline the pick towards 'No' (No Goal / clean sheet expected).

The model forecasts approximately 2.91 total goals: Ascoli 1.73 vs Nuova Monterosi 1.18. This is driven by seasonal xG values — Ascoli have an attacking xG of 1.35, while Nuova Monterosi concede on average xG 1.72 (their mean yields 1.54 for the home side) — and by the last 5 matches, where Ascoli’s attacking xG is 1.89 and Nuova Monterosi’s opponents recorded conceded xG of 1.83 (average 1.86), which lifts the expected output for Ascoli. Ascoli have scored 12 goals in their last five games (2.4 per match), whereas Nuova Monterosi have 4 goals in five (0.8), with the away shot conversion at 12% versus 6% for the hosts — this increases the probability of at least two goals. Considering the seasonal Over 1.5 rate of 53% for both teams and the projected ~2.9 goals, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5).

At half-time the strongest signal is a draw: the home side have been level at the break in 76% of matches, the visitors in 59%, which translates to an estimated ~68% probability of an HT draw. The first half produces few goals — Ascoli score on average 0.24 goals by half-time, Monterosi 0.35, and Ascoli keep a clean sheet at the break in 76% of games, confirming the defensive nature of the halves. After the break the odds favor Ascoli based on form: in the last five matches the hosts have a 100% win rate and average 3.0 points per match versus the visitors’ 1.2 points, and 1.6 points to half-time versus 0.8 for Monterosi. Additionally xG shows an advantage for Ascoli (xG_for 1.35 vs 1.12 for Monterosi) while Monterosi concede 1.72 xG on average, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home victory at full-time (X/1).