Ashdod vs Maccabi Bnei Raina: match statistics

Ashdod has a statistical advantage in attack: the hosts score 1.46 goals per home match versus Maccabi’s 0.79 on the road, with seasonal tallies 33 goals to 20. Ashdod creates more chances (11.62 shots per match and 3.62 on target) with a conversion rate of 13%, while the visitors average 8.79 shots and 3.07 on target with a 9% conversion, and xG is 1.31 versus 1.16. Both teams have defensive issues (hosts concede 2.31 goals at home, visitors 2.21 away), but the visitors fail to score more often — 43% of matches without a goal versus 15% for Ashdod. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 5 and conceded 8, while the visitors have scored 3 and conceded 6; although the visitors have 1.0 points per match in the last 5 compared to Ashdod’s 0.4, the superior offensive efficiency and better seasonal goal balance favor a home win.

Both teams show clear defensive vulnerabilities: Ashdod concedes 2.31 goals per match on average, while Maccabi Bnei Raina concedes 2.21, indicating a high risk of opponents scoring. Conversely, both sides score little — 0.69 and 0.79 goals per match — but xG of 1.09 (Ashdod) and 1.16 (Maccabi) shows they create chances and finishing efficiency is low (7% and 9%). In the last 5 matches Ashdod recorded BTTS in 60% of games, Maccabi in 20%, but Maccabi has a very high average xG against in L5 (2.42), so the risk of conceding increases despite a low actual GA of 1.2 in those five matches. Given the low clean sheet percentages (15% and 7%), the league BTTS rate of 56% and the created xG, I favor the Yes option and estimate BTTS at 60% vs 40% for No Goal.

Season statistics indicate Ashdod's matches finished Over 1.5 in 77% of fixtures, and Maccabi Bnei Raina's in 79%, yielding an average of about 78% for this line. Ashdod produces 1.09 xG per match on average, Maccabi 1.16 xG; when accounting for susceptibility to conceded chances (Maccabi concedes 2.27 xG per match, Ashdod 1.84 xG), expected goals are approximately 1.68 for the home side and 1.50 for the away side (total 3.18). Both teams average 10.15 and 8.79 shots per match respectively, and 3.38 and 3.07 shots on target, with conversion rates of 7% and 9% suggesting xG translates realistically into goals. In the last 5 matches Ashdod scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and conceded 8 (1.6), while Maccabi scored 3 (0.6) and conceded 6 (1.2), which further supports a forecast of at least two goals. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈78% chance); Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (~63%), and Over 3.5 is essentially balanced (~49%/51%).

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Ashdod were level at the break in 46% of their matches this season, and in the last 5 games they were level after 45 minutes in 100% of cases, while Maccabi were level at half-time in 21% of matches, which together yields roughly a 47% chance of a draw at the first 45 minutes. After the break I favour the visitors — Maccabi have a higher xG (1.16 versus Ashdod’s 1.09) and perform better after half-time (9 points and an average of 0.64 points in second halves versus 6 points and 0.46 for the hosts), so they have greater potential to recover or score decisive goals. The defences of both teams are weak (Ashdod concede on average 2.31 goals per match, the visitors 2.21) and clean sheets are rare (15% for the hosts, 7% for the visitors), which increases the probability of a turnaround in the second half. On this basis the strongest signal is Draw at Half-Time and Away Win at Full-Time (X/2 — 28%), the second scenario is Draw/Draw (X/X — 17%), while scenarios in which the hosts keep the lead were given less weight due to Ashdod’s low attacking efficiency (0.69 goals per match).