Astana vs Altay: match statistics
Astana vs Altay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Astana played Altay in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 26 July 2026. Venue: Astana Arena. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Astana: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Altay: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Astana scores 1.47 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Altay scores 0.78 and concedes 1.22. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Astana 47%, Altay 44%. Over 2.5: Astana 47%, Altay 28%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Astana has higher xG: 1.75 vs 1.25. Astana: 15.5 shots per match, Altay: 10.7.
Match halves
Astana: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.71. Altay: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Astana: 46-60 (7 goals). Altay: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Astana is the clear favorite: at home they win 89% of matches, score an average of 2.22 goals and concede only 0.67 goals per game, with a home goal difference of +14. Altay on the road scores just 0.75 goals per game, concedes 1.25 and wins only 25% of away matches; additionally 38% of their away fixtures end without scoring. The quality gap is visible in xG and shots: Astana’s home xG is 1.98 with 7.78 on-target shots per game, versus Altay’s away xG of 1.2 and 4.0 on-target shots. In the last five matches Astana scored 8 goals and averages 2.0 points (record 3-1-1), while Altay scored 6 goals and averages 1.2 points (record 2-0-3), which further supports the home side. Based on this I project a 72% probability for an Astana win, 18% for a draw and 10% for an Altay win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project a 62% probability for BTTS - Yes and 38% for No Goal. A strong short-term signal comes from form: both Astana and Altay have BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches (3/5 each), meaning both teams scored in 3 of their last 5 fixtures. Seasonal rates are more conservative — Astana has a seasonal BTTS of 40% and Altay 50% (average 45%), versus a league BTTS average of 52%, which dampens the long-term case for BTTS. A key argument for the both-teams-to-score scenario is goals and xG: Altay conceded 2.0 goals on average in the last 5 (10 conceded), Astana conceded 1.6 (8 conceded), and recent xG stand at 1.79 for Astana and 1.13 for Altay with xG against of 1.64 and 1.51 respectively, indicating chance creation and chance concession. Although Astana has a seasonal 40% clean sheet rate versus Altay’s 13% and the league clean sheet rate is 59%, the recent goals averages (last 5: Astana 1.6 scored, Altay 1.2 scored) and Altay’s high rate of concessions make the BTTS - Yes scenario the strongest.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and recent form analysis indicate an elevated goal potential: attacking xG is 1.30 for Astana and 1.20 for Altay (total 2.50), and in the last 5 matches attacking xG was higher: 1.79 and 1.13 (total 2.92). In practice both teams produced a combined 16 goals across their last five matches (home team 8 scored and 8 conceded = 3.2 per game, away team 6 scored and 10 conceded = 3.2 per game). Season-long over2.5 rates are low (30% for Astana, 25% for Altay), but over2.5 occurred in 60% of the last 5 matches for both sides, which raises the short-term probability of a higher-scoring game. Averaging attacking xG, recent xG and xG against (1.3, 1.79, 1.4 for the home side and 1.2, 1.13, 1.53 for the away) I project 1.50 goals for Astana and 1.29 for Altay (sum 2.79), translating to roughly a 77% chance of Over 1.5 and about 53% for Over 2.5. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: Over) — the expected total of 2.79 goals and the clear uptick in goals over the last 5 matches provide a significant edge for this option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Season-long statistics show that Astana virtually did not lead at the break in home matches (0%) and as many as 70% of their home games were level at half-time, but in the last five appearances the hosts led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5) versus 20% for Altay (1 of 5). In the last five matches Astana won 60% of games, Altay 40%, and the average goals in those five fixtures are 1.6 for Astana versus 1.2 for Altay, which gives the hosts an advantage by full-time. The hosts’ xG is 1.3 versus 1.2 for the visitors, and in second halves Astana scores an average of 0.7 goals versus 0.5 for Altay, so the hosts have a realistic chance to hold or extend a lead after the break. Taking into account this shift in trend (0% season HT leads vs 60% in the last five) and the higher efficiency and xG in recent matches, the strongest signal is the 1/1 scenario (Astana leads at Half-Time and wins the match).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Astana | Altay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Astana is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Astana · 1.4 pts / match - Altay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Astana is 88% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Astana · 0.78 goals / match - Altay
Astana is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Astana · 1.22 goals / match - Altay
Astana scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while Altay keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
Altay scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 29% (5 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Astana
Over / Under - Altay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Astana is 121% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.59 pts / match - Astana · 0.72 pts / match - Altay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Astana - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Altay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Astana
Altay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Astana | Liga | Altay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.59 | 2.31 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 52% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 47% | 43% | ▼ 28% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 63% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 71% | 69% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Astana 0 - 1 - 0 Altay. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Astana vs Altay?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Astana 4:1 Altay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Astana vs Altay?
Astana score 1.47 goals per game on average and Altay 0.78. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Astana's matches and 44% of Altay's.
What form are Astana and Altay in?
Over the last 5 games Astana have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Altay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Astana vs Altay?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Astana vs Altay: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.