Astana vs Atyrau: match statistics
Astana vs Atyrau: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Astana played Atyrau in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Astana: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Atyrau: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Astana scores 1.50 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Atyrau scores 0.67 and concedes 0.50. League average: 2.16 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Astana 50%, Atyrau 33%. Over 2.5: Astana 50%, Atyrau 0%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Astana has higher xG: 1.57 vs 0.78. Astana: 13.5 shots per match, Atyrau: 5.8.
Match halves
Astana: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67. Atyrau: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Astana: 0-15 (2 goals). Atyrau: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.16 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Astana holds a clear home advantage: averaging 2.33 goals per home match, 14.67 shots with 7 on target, 57% possession and an average xG of 1.76, translating into a +5 goal difference and an unbeaten home record (0 losses, 67% wins). Atyrau arrive with poor away offensive output — 1.0 goal, 6.5 shots and 3 on target per away match, 29% possession and xG 0.85, and no away wins yet (0 wins, 100% draws). Defensively the hosts are stronger as well: Astana concedes 0.67 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in 33% of home games, whereas Atyrau concede 1.0 goals away and have no clean sheets. However, both teams show similar form over the last five matches — 7 goals and 1.6 points per game each — which increases the likelihood of an even contest and a draw. Considering the shot volume advantage (14.67 vs 6.5), higher xG (1.76 vs 0.85) and the hosts’ solid defense, I tip an Astana victory, although a draw remains realistic.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators favor No BTTS: Astana at home has 75% clean sheets and seasonal BTTS of 0%, with a season average of 0.25 goals conceded. Atyrau seasonally has BTTS 100% and scores on average 1.0 goal per match, registering 3.0 shots on target and a 15% conversion rate (compared to 2.0 shots on target and 9% for Astana), which shows the visitors can create danger. However, in the last 5 matches Atyrau has only 20% BTTS and concedes on average 0.4 goals, while Astana in the last 5 has 60% BTTS and concedes on average 1.6 goals — this suggests a discrepancy but also the hosts' seasonal defensive stability. Additionally xG is 0.75 for Astana versus 0.85 for Atyrau, and xG against is 1.14 for the hosts and 2.0 for the visitors; given Astana's 75% clean sheets versus only 20% BTTS for Atyrau in the last five and a league average BTTS of 52%, the stronger signal is No (No Goal / clean sheet expected).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Predicted xG is 1.47 for Astana and 1.17 for Atyrau, totaling 2.64 expected goals, which translates to roughly a 74% chance of at least 2 goals in the match. The estimate incorporates seasonal xG (0.75 vs 0.85) and form from the last 5 matches (1.69 for Astana and 1.13 for Atyrau); the sum of recent xG is 2.82, which supports a higher total. Atyrau averages 6.5 shots with a 15% conversion (~0.98 xG), and Astana 5.5 shots with 9% (~0.50), confirming the 1.47/1.17 goal distribution. Seasonal data conflict on clean sheets and BTTS (Astana 75% clean sheets and 0% both teams scoring, Atyrau 0% clean sheets and 100% both teams scoring), increasing uncertainty on BTTS but not substantially reducing the probability of at least 2 goals. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; the 2.5 line is almost coin-flip (~49% Over) and offers a weaker edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Astana is exceptionally stable in first halves: they have not conceded any goals by half-time (0.0) and kept a clean sheet at the break in 100% of matches, so a draw at half-time is the most likely outcome. Atyrau averages 1.0 goals by half-time and led at the break in 50% of their games, but their defense concedes a lot in xG — on average 2.0 xG conceded per match. After the break Astana scores more and finds the net: the hosts collected 5 points after half-time (an average of 1.25 points per match after the break) and have one goal in the 61–75 and 76–90 minute intervals (1.0 and 1.0), while Atyrau has 1 point after the break (an average of 0.5). Additionally, Astana keep clean sheets at home in 75% of matches, and despite Atyrau having a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs. Astana’s 9%), Atyrau more often allows opponents high xG, increasing the hosts’ chances of a turnaround after a goalless first half. Therefore the best pick is draw at half-time and Astana to win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Astana | Atyrau | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Astana is 124% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Astana · 0.67 goals / match - Atyrau
Atyrau is 166% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Astana · 0.5 goals / match - Atyrau
Astana scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Atyrau keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
Atyrau scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Astana
Over / Under - Atyrau
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Astana - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atyrau - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Astana
Atyrau
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Astana | Liga | Atyrau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.83 | 2.16 | ▼ 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 53% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 36% | ▼ 0% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 30% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 60% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Astana 2 - 0 - 0 Atyrau. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Astana vs Atyrau?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Astana 2:1 Atyrau. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Astana and Atyrau?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Astana won 2, Atyrau won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Astana vs Atyrau?
Astana score 1.50 goals per game on average and Atyrau 0.67. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.16 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Astana's matches and 33% of Atyrau's.
What form are Astana and Atyrau in?
Over the last 5 games Astana have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Atyrau 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Astana vs Atyrau?
The statistical background for Astana vs Atyrau — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.