Astana vs Kyzyl-Zhar: match statistics
Astana vs Kyzyl-Zhar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Astana played Kyzyl-Zhar in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Astana: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Kyzyl-Zhar: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Astana scores 1.38 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Kyzyl-Zhar scores 1.25 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Astana 50%, Kyzyl-Zhar 38%. Over 2.5: Astana 50%, Kyzyl-Zhar 50%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Astana has higher xG: 1.67 vs 1.12. Astana: 14.6 shots per match, Kyzyl-Zhar: 9.8.
Match halves
Astana: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.50. Kyzyl-Zhar: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 1.13.
Goals by minute
Astana: 16-30 (4 goals). Kyzyl-Zhar: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.07 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Astana is the favorite: at home they average 2.25 goals per game, register 7 shots on target and have 59% possession. At home they are unbeaten (0% defeats), have won 75% of matches and boast a +6 goal differential. Kyzyl-Zhar score only 0.33 goals on average away, average 2 shots on target per game, have a shot accuracy rate of 3% and failed to score in 67% of away matches, indicating serious finishing issues. The visitors’ defense away, however, is compact: Kyzyl-Zhar concede only 0.33 goals on average and keep 67% clean sheets, with an average xG against of 1.06, which suggests they can limit actual damage despite chances created. In the last 5 matches the hosts average 1 point per game (form ddwll), while the visitors average 1.8 points per game and have 3 wins in 5 (wwlwl), yet the visitors’ better form does not translate into away efficiency. Considering Astana’s superiority in quality and volume of chances (xG 1.77 and 7 shots on target at home versus the visitors’ xG against 1.06 and 2 shots on target away) and the high percentage of matches where Kyzyl-Zhar fail to score (67%), I tip the home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I lean toward a BTTS - Yes scenario: 70% Yes, 30% No. Astana has a season BTTS rate of 60% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with goals scored 1.8 on the season and 1.2 in the last 5, while conceding 1.2 on the season and 1.4 in the last 5. Kyzyl-Zhar has a season clean sheet rate of 67% and a season goals average of 0.33, but in the last 5 matches they scored 8 goals (1.6 avg.) and conceded 4 goals (0.8 avg.), showing scoring potential in form. xG suggests similar chance creation: xG_for 1.17 (Astana) vs 1.04 (Kyzyl-Zhar) and xG_against 1.33 vs 1.06, and additionally Astana averages 4.4 shots on target vs 2.0 for the opponents and has a conversion rate of 19% vs 3%, which increases the probability that both sides will find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG and form, I expect around 1.35 goals for Astana (xG_for season 1.17, xG_for last 5 = 1.56) and 0.95 goals for Kyzyl-Zhar (xG_for season 1.04, xG_for last 5 = 1.01), totaling 2.30 expected goals. Astana averages 1.8 goals per game this season, registers 4.4 shots on target with a 19% conversion rate, while Kyzyl-Zhar has season figures of 0.33 goals per game, 2.0 shots on target and a 3% conversion, so most goals should come from the home side. Data show a divergence: Astana home matches finished Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, but Kyzyl-Zhar away games had 0% Over 2.5, therefore signals point to a confident Over 1.5 but a less convincing Over 2.5. After weighing these indicators the model gives about a 67% chance of Over 1.5, about 40% for Over 2.5 and about 20% for Over 3.5, so I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1): Astana scores an average of 0.2 goals by half-time while Kyzyl‑Zhar averages 0.0, which favors a draw in the first 45 minutes. After the break however the hosts significantly accelerate — they score an average of 1.6 goals in the second half and in 100% of their matches so far they have had at least 0.5 goals after the break, so they are most often the side to produce the turnaround. Additionally Astana has an xG of 1.17 versus 1.04 for their opponents and 4.4 shots on target per game compared to 2.0 for the visitors, and the higher conversion rate (19% vs 3%) means that with similar xG the hosts more frequently convert chances into goals. Even so Kyzyl‑Zhar keep a lot of clean sheets (67% of matches without conceding this season), which justifies a relatively high chance of a full-time draw (I gave 22% to X/X) and a small probability that the visitors win after a half-time draw (X/2 only 2%). Therefore the most correct HT/FT pick is X/1, with 1/1 (10%) and 2/1 (7%) treated as secondary scenarios due to the rarity of the hosts leading at half-time (20%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Astana | Kyzyl-Zhar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kyzyl-Zhar is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Astana · 1.4 pts / match - Kyzyl-Zhar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Astana is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Astana · 1.25 goals / match - Kyzyl-Zhar
Kyzyl-Zhar is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Astana · 0.88 goals / match - Kyzyl-Zhar
Astana scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Kyzyl-Zhar keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
Kyzyl-Zhar scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Astana
Over / Under - Kyzyl-Zhar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Astana is 70% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Astana · 0.88 pts / match - Kyzyl-Zhar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Astana - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Kyzyl-Zhar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Astana
Kyzyl-Zhar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Astana | Liga | Kyzyl-Zhar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.63 | 2.07 | • 2.13 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 34% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 32% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 63% | 60% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 68% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Astana 1 - 1 - 0 Kyzyl-Zhar. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Astana vs Kyzyl-Zhar?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Astana 2:1 Kyzyl-Zhar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Astana and Kyzyl-Zhar?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Astana won 1, Kyzyl-Zhar won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Astana vs Kyzyl-Zhar?
Astana score 1.38 goals per game on average and Kyzyl-Zhar 1.25. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Astana's matches and 38% of Kyzyl-Zhar's.
What form are Astana and Kyzyl-Zhar in?
Over the last 5 games Astana have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Kyzyl-Zhar 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Astana vs Kyzyl-Zhar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.