Astana vs Ordabasy: match statistics
Astana vs Ordabasy: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Astana played Ordabasy in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Astana: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match. Ordabasy: 2-2-0, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Astana scores 1.50 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Ordabasy scores 1.75 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.06 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Astana 25%, Ordabasy 50%. Over 2.5: Astana 50%, Ordabasy 25%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 29%.
xG, shots and style
Ordabasy has higher xG: 2.28 vs 1.62. Astana: 13.5 shots per match, Ordabasy: 20.3.
Match halves
Astana: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.50. Ordabasy: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Astana: 16-30 (2 goals). Ordabasy: 61-75 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.06 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 29%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Astana shows strong home metrics: on average 17.5 shots and 9 shots on target per match, xG 2.12 and 3.0 goals scored per match, with just 0.5 goals conceded on average. Ordabasy away records only 8 shots and 4 on target, xG 1.07 and 2.0 goals per match, but their shot conversion is 25% versus Astana’s 17%, which increases the value of their limited chances. In the last 5 matches Astana scored 8 goals and averages 2.0 points per match, while Ordabasy scored 11 goals and averages 2.2 points per match, indicating better recent efficiency for the visitors. Defensively the hosts are solid at home (50% clean sheets and xG against 0.69), whereas Ordabasy officially haven’t conceded away (0.0 goals conceded) but have a higher xG against 1.23, suggesting their clean sheets may have been partly down to luck. Considering Astana’s significantly higher volume of chances and superior xG (2.12 vs 1.07) plus a possession edge (58% vs 51%), I tip a home win; probability distribution: 60% Astana, 22% draw, 18% Ordabasy.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Astana at home has BTTS in 67% of matches and averages 1.67 goals scored with as much as 2.68 xG per game and 9 shots on target, indicating a high volume of created chances. Ordabasy have a seasonal 100% clean sheets away record and 0% BTTS, but their last 5 matches tell a different story: 60% BTTS in the last five, averaging 2.2 goals and 2.17 xG (11 goals in 5 games). xG/defense comparison shows Astana generates 2.68 xG versus 1.23 xG conceded by Ordabasy, while the visitors have 1.07 xG away against 0.96 xG conceded by Astana, indicating a real chance for both teams to score. Additionally, Ordabasy have a high conversion rate of 25% with an average of 8 shots, so even with fewer attempts they can convert; given Astana's 67% BTTS at home and the offensive numbers of both sides, I pick BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model gives 1.96 expected goals for Astana and 1.02 for Ordabasy (1.96 = home xG attack 2.68 and xG conceded by visitors 1.23; 1.02 = away xG attack 1.07 and xG conceded to hosts 0.96), totaling 2.98 goals. Using a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.98, the probability of Over 1.5 is ~79.8% (rounded to 80%), Over 2.5 ≈57.3% (57%) and Over 3.5 ≈34.9% (35%). Astana averages 24.33 shots and 9.0 on target versus Ordabasy’s 8.0 shots and 4.0 on target, and the hosts’ xG 2.68 vs visitors’ 1.07 underscores the attacking advantage. The difference in conversion (7% for Astana vs 25% for Ordabasy) indicates the visitors are efficient with fewer chances, but Astana creates far more opportunities. Considering the total expected 2.98 goals and seasonal stats (both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 in the provided data), I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal with the best probability-to-risk profile.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Visitors have a 100% win rate and average 3.0 points per match; they score 2.0 goals per game and concede none (0.0). At half-time the visitors are level in 100% of cases, while in the second half they score an average of 2.0 goals, which suggests decisive outcomes occur after the break. Hosts generate a lot of chances (xG 2.68 and 24.33 shots per match) but have a low conversion rate of 7%, yielding only 1.67 goals on average. Since hosts lead at the break in only 33% of matches, and visitors have a 25% shot conversion and 100% wins, the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a visitors’ victory at full-time (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Astana | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 50% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ordabasy is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.75 pts / match - Astana · 2 pts / match - Ordabasy
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ordabasy is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Astana · 1.75 goals / match - Ordabasy
Ordabasy is 67% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Astana · 0.75 goals / match - Ordabasy
Astana scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while Ordabasy keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
Ordabasy scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Astana
Over / Under - Ordabasy
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Astana is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / match - Astana · 1.25 pts / match - Ordabasy
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Astana - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ordabasy - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 25% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Astana
Ordabasy
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Astana | Liga | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.75 | 2.06 | ▲ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 49% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 29% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 34% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 57% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 63% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Astana 1 - 0 - 1 Ordabasy. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Astana vs Ordabasy?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Astana 1:1 Ordabasy. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Astana and Ordabasy?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Astana won 1, Ordabasy won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Astana vs Ordabasy?
Astana score 1.50 goals per game on average and Ordabasy 1.75. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.06 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 29% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Astana's matches and 50% of Ordabasy's.
What form are Astana and Ordabasy in?
Over the last 5 games Astana have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Ordabasy 2-2-0 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Astana vs Ordabasy?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.