Aston Villa vs Fulham: match statistics

Aston Villa have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding 4, while Fulham have recorded 3 wins, scored 7 goals and conceded 5. The hosts have a clear edge in recent attacking form, although their home results are less convincing: they have won 25% of such matches and concede an average of 1.5 goals. Fulham concede just 0.75 goals per away game and have kept a clean sheet in half of their matches on the road, so they could limit Villa’s attack. However, the visitors score only 0.5 goals per away game and have failed to score in 50% of their away matches; their average xG of 1.31 suggests they create more chances than they convert. Villa’s recent form therefore points towards a home win, but Fulham’s more solid away defence means a draw remains a realistic outcome.

Aston Villa average 1.5 goals at home and have not failed to score in any home match, which supports the case for them to find the net. Fulham are more of a concern: they average 0.5 goals away and have failed to score in 50% of their matches. On the other hand, Villa concede an average of 1.75 goals at home, while Fulham’s away xG is 1.31, giving the visitors a solid basis for creating scoring chances. In their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, and Fulham averaged 1.4 goals during that period. Therefore, both teams scoring is marginally more likely, although Fulham’s low away scoring rate limits confidence in this pick.

Aston Villa scored an average of 2.8 goals across their last 5 matches, with at least 3 goals scored in 80% of those games. Fulham averaged 1.4 goals over the same period, although Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% of their matches, making a higher line less reliable. The hosts’ attacking advantage is reflected in their average xG of 1.97 compared with 1.31 for the visitors, as well as 6 shots on target per match versus 3. A forecast of 2.75 goals makes Over 1.5 goals the strongest pick: just two goals are needed, even if Fulham once again struggle to find the net.

The strongest signal points to Aston Villa taking a lead at the break: the hosts did so in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 first-half goals compared with Fulham’s 0.6. Villa also won 4 of those 5 matches and averaged 2.8 goals per game, while Fulham scored 1.4. The hosts’ attacking advantage is reflected in their average xG of 1.97 compared with 1.31, and 6 shots on target per game compared with the visitors’ 3. However, Fulham were level at half-time in all 4 of their away matches and did not concede before the break in any of them, making a draw at half-time followed by a Villa win a significant alternative. Even so, the combination of Villa’s frequent early leads and superior scoring form across their last 5 matches makes the hosts leading both at half-time and at full-time the most likely single scenario.