Aston Villa vs Sunderland: match statistics

Aston Villa appears to be the favorite: they have a 63% win rate at home and sit 4th in the table, while Sunderland have a 25% away win rate and occupy 10th place. Over the last 5 matches overall Villa have scored 11 goals and average 2.0 points per game, whereas Sunderland have scored 4 goals and average 1.8 points. Offensively the hosts are clearly superior numerically: Villa averages 14.19 shots and 4.69 on target per home match with an average xG of 1.62, while Sunderland on the road average 8.75 shots, 3.06 on target and xG 1.08; Villa’s conversion rate is around 10% versus the visitors’ 7%. Defensively the hosts also hold the advantage — Villa concedes 0.94 goals per home game and has an xG against of 1.32, whereas Sunderland concede 1.38 goals away and have xG against of 1.88; additionally the visitors fail to score in 50% of away matches, while Villa keep a clean sheet in 38% of home games. Considering these figures, I assess the probabilities as 63% for a home win, 20% for a draw and 17% for the away side, hence the pick: 1.

I forecast BTTS - No at 60% vs 40% for Yes — the data combination favors only Aston Villa scoring. Aston Villa averages 1.44 goals per season and 2.2 in the last 5 matches, while Sunderland has just 0.63 for the season and 0.8 in the last 5, giving a clear home advantage in goal scoring. Villa averages 11.19 shots per match with a 13% conversion rate, versus Sunderland’s 8.75 shots and 7% conversion, so the hosts are much more efficient at turning chances into goals. Season BTTS is 50% for Villa and 38% for Sunderland, and in the last 5 matches BTTS is 60% (Villa) vs 20% (Sunderland), indicating the visitors are less likely to join the scorers. Additionally, season xG is 1.28 for Villa and 1.08 for Sunderland, and although Sunderland has 1.49 xG in the last 5, they have scored only 4 goals in that period, so the visitors’ low conversion increases the probability that both teams will not score (No Goal).

I estimate 1.58 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.25 for Sunderland, totalling 2.83 goals and constituting a strong signal for Over 1.5. The calculation is based on xG: Villa has xG-for 1.28 versus Sunderland xG-against 1.88 (average 1.58 for Villa), and Sunderland xG-for 1.08 versus Villa xG-against 1.41 (average 1.25 for Sunderland). Seasonal metrics confirm a propensity for goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 69% of matches for both teams, Villa scores on average 1.44 goals with 11.19 shots and a 13% conversion, while Sunderland scores 0.63 with 8.75 shots and a 7% conversion. In the last 5 matches Villa averaged 2.2 goals scored (11 goals in 5 matches) and conceded 0.8, which further boosts the probability of at least two goals in the match. The model gives approximately 77% for Over 1.5, about 54% for Over 2.5 (seasonal Over 2.5: 44% Villa, 38% Sunderland) and only about 31% for Over 3.5, therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most reliable signal.

Statistics favor Aston Villa — on the season hosts average 1.44 goals per match versus Sunderland’s 0.63, have a higher xG of 1.28 versus 1.08 and average 11.19 shots (3.44 on target) compared to the visitors’ 8.75 (3.06). In the last five matches Villa led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%) and have a first-half goal average of 1.4 across those five, while Sunderland have 0.0 first-half goals in their last five. Seasonally the hosts concede only 0.25 goals by half-time at home, whereas Sunderland concede 0.75 in the first half on the road, increasing the likelihood of Villa holding a lead after 45 minutes. Over the full match Villa also show superior home efficiency — season home points per game are 1.81 versus the visitors’ 1.06, and Villa’s shot conversion is 13% compared to Sunderland’s 7%, so maintaining a lead is more probable. Based on this the strongest scenario is HT/FT 1/1 (Aston Villa leading at half-time and winning) with a 50% probability; an alternative is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) at 22% due to the seasonal frequency of hosts being level at half-time of 63%.