ASU Poli Timişoara vs ASA Târgu Mureş: match statistics

ASU Poli Timişoara remain unbeaten in the league, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw, while they have collected 13 of a possible 15 points in their last five matches. The hosts hold a clear advantage in chance creation at home, averaging 15 shots, including 7.5 on target, and an xG of 2.02, whereas ASA Târgu Mureş register an away xG of 1.18 and just 2 shots on target per match. Poli’s defence is yet to concede at home and has kept a clean sheet in 100% of its home fixtures, while the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home, with an xG against of exactly 2.00. ASA sit 14th, have won just 1 of their 4 matches this season, and are still without an away victory, recording 1 draw and 1 defeat. The gap in current form, possession (64% to 52%) and the quality of chances created clearly favours a home win.

BTTS - No is the stronger scenario, as ASU Poli Timişoara kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season and conceded only 0.6 goals per game across their last 5 fixtures. The home defence looks even stronger in terms of chance quality: their average xG conceded over the last five appearances is just 0.89, while ASA Târgu Mureş score only 1.0 goal per game on average. The visitors have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 1.5 goals, while the hosts are in a run of four consecutive wins, scoring 2.0 goals per match in their last 5 games. The last-five-match indicators support BTTS, standing at 60% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors, but it is more likely that the hosts will score while their well-organised defence prevents the opposition from replying.

ASU Poli Timişoara are in excellent form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded. ASA Târgu Mureş averaged 1.0 goal scored during this period, while the hosts allowed their opponents only 0.89 xG per match. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.68 across their last five appearances, compared with 1.84 xG conceded on average by the visitors, but this does not yet point to a very high-scoring game. Across all matches played so far this season, both teams have had 100% of their games finish below 3.5 goals, while in their last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in only 40% and 20% of cases, respectively. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the data point towards a result in the region of 2-3 goals, with the visitors offering limited offensive contribution.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an ASU Poli Timişoara victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded only 0.2 goals per game before half-time during this period. After the interval, the Timişoara side improves significantly: they score an average of 1.2 goals, concede 0.4, and won the second half in 80% of their last five matches. The hosts are also in considerably better overall form, with 4 wins and a draw in their five appearances and an average of 2.0 goals scored, while ASA Târgu Mureş lost 40% of such matches. Although the visitors are capable of opening the scoring, they were behind at half-time in as many as 40% of their last five matches and scored only 0.4 goals per game after the break, which favors the hosts in the closing stages.