Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: match statistics
Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Asyut Petroleum played Baladiyyat Al Mehalla in Second Division (Egypt). The match was played on 14 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Asyut Petroleum: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Asyut Petroleum scores 1.24 and concedes 0.82 goals per match. Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores 1.03 and concedes 1.12. League average: 1.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Asyut Petroleum 39%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 48%. Over 2.5: Asyut Petroleum 36%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 39%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla has higher xG: 1.28 vs 1.24. Asyut Petroleum: 5.9 shots per match, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: 8.3.
Match halves
Asyut Petroleum: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.52. Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Asyut Petroleum: 0-15 (14 goals). Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: 31-45+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Second Division: 1.95 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Asyut Petroleum sit 2nd in the table with 41 goals this season and a 50% home win rate, while Baladiyyat Al Mehalla are 15th with 34 goals and just a 13% away win rate. The hosts concede an average of 0.88 goals at home versus the visitors’ 1.5 on the road; Asyut keep clean sheets in 50% of home matches compared to only 6% for Baladiyyat. Asyut generate more high-quality chances: home xG is 1.46 with 4.57 on-target shots and 11.86 attempts per game, whereas Baladiyyat register xG 1.28, 3.64 on-target shots and 9.79 attempts. The visitors have a slightly higher conversion rate (around 9% vs the hosts’ 7%) and have scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches versus Asyut’s 6, but their weaker away defense and low clean sheet rate (6%) limit their prospects. Considering the hosts’ defensive edge, superior chance quality and the home win rate differential (50% vs 13%), I back a home win and estimate probabilities of 60% home win, 25% draw and 15% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back No BTTS because Asyut Petroleum has a clearly superior home defense: they concede 0.76 goals per game on the season and keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches, with 41 goals scored and 27 conceded this season. Baladiyyat Al Mehalla have BTTS in 63% of their games season-long and average 1.0 goals scored, but as an away side they concede 1.5 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 6% of away fixtures, which weakens their ability to silence the hosts. Both teams show nearly identical attacking xG (Asyut 1.29 vs Baladiyyat 1.28), however in the last 5 matches Asyut limited opponents to 0.63 xG against and conceded 5 goals (1.0 on average), while Baladiyyat conceded only 3 (0.6 on average) and had BTTS in just 20% of their last 5 games. Overall the stronger signal is Asyut’s high clean sheet rate (47%) and lower home goals conceded (0.76), so I prefer No BTTS (no) as the more justified pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (Asyut xG_for 1.29 vs Baladiyyat xG_for 1.28 and xG_against 1.42 and 1.35 respectively) yields expected goals of 1.32 for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors, totaling 2.67 goals. With lambda=2.67 the probability of Over 1.5 goals is approximately 75%, Over 2.5 around 50%, and Over 3.5 about 28% (calculated using the Poisson distribution). Seasonal stats corroborate this picture: Baladiyyat has 50% of matches with Over 2.5 goals and 63% BTTS, while Asyut averages 1.06 goals per game and keeps a clean sheet in 47% of matches, indicating the visitors more frequently take part in open games. In the last 5 matches Asyut scored on average 1.2 goals, Baladiyyat 1.4 goals, and both teams have 40% of matches Over 2.5 in their last five, which further supports a stake on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Asyut draw at the break in 47% of their home matches and have 71% clean halves at HT, which strongly suggests a level score after the first 45 minutes. In the second half the hosts hold the advantage – Asyut average 0.71 goals scored and 0.35 conceded after the break (net +0.36) and have a cumulative +6 goal differential in second halves, while Baladiyyat average 0.5 scored and 0.88 conceded after the break (net -0.38) with a cumulative -6. This translates to points and effectiveness after the break: Asyut collected 22 points in second halves and average 1.29 points in second halves, versus 15 points and 0.94 on average for the opponents. Additionally, the home advantage across the season is visible – 1.06 goals scored at home versus 1.00 by Baladiyyat, 1.29 points per home match versus 0.63 for away, and win percentages 29% vs 13%. Therefore the strongest scenario from the provided data is a draw at half-time, with Asyut ultimately winning (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Asyut Petroleum | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Asyut Petroleum is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.24 goals / match - Asyut Petroleum · 1.03 goals / match - Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Asyut Petroleum is 37% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.82 goals / match - Asyut Petroleum · 1.12 goals / match - Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Asyut Petroleum scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Baladiyyat Al Mehalla keeps a clean sheet in 27% (9 of 33 matches).
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores in 64% of matches (21 of 33 matches), while Asyut Petroleum keeps a clean sheet in 45% (15 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Asyut Petroleum
Over / Under - Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Asyut Petroleum - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 21%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Asyut Petroleum
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Second Division).
Teams vs league
| Asyut Petroleum | Liga | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.06 | 1.95 | ▲ 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 41% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 36% | 32% | ▲ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 38% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | • 52% | 53% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 52% | 68% | ▲ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Asyut Petroleum 0 - 1 - 0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?
The Second Division match finished Asyut Petroleum 1:0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?
Asyut Petroleum score 1.24 goals per game on average and Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1.03. The Second Division average is 1.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Asyut Petroleum's matches and 48% of Baladiyyat Al Mehalla's.
What form are Asyut Petroleum and Baladiyyat Al Mehalla in?
Over the last 5 games Asyut Petroleum have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.