Asyut Petroleum vs Raya Ghazl: match statistics
Asyut Petroleum vs Raya Ghazl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Asyut Petroleum played Raya Ghazl in Second Division (Egypt). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Asyut Petroleum: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Raya Ghazl: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Asyut Petroleum scores 1.26 and concedes 0.84 goals per match. Raya Ghazl scores 0.61 and concedes 1.35. League average: 1.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Asyut Petroleum 39%, Raya Ghazl 42%. Over 2.5: Asyut Petroleum 39%, Raya Ghazl 42%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
Asyut Petroleum has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.10. Asyut Petroleum: 6.2 shots per match, Raya Ghazl: 7.2.
Match halves
Asyut Petroleum: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.52. Raya Ghazl: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.39.
Goals by minute
Asyut Petroleum: 0-15 (14 goals). Raya Ghazl: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Second Division: 1.93 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Asyut Petroleum are the clear favorites and I anticipate a home win. At home Asyut average 1.4 goals per match and record a 47% home-win rate while conceding 0.93 goals per game, whereas Raya Ghazl average only 0.2 goals on the road and have 0% away wins. In their last 5 matches Asyut have scored 7 goals and average 1 point per game, while Raya have scored 2 and conceded 12, which clearly highlights the visitors’ defensive issues. Chance quality also favors the hosts: Asyut’s home xG is 1.46 with 4.57 shots on target and a conversion rate around 7% versus Raya’s xG 1.09, 2.62 shots on target and conversion around 2%. Additionally Raya have 80% of away matches without scoring (FTS) and a negative away goal difference (-16), so the likelihood of a draw or an away win is low.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis favors a BTTS - No scenario: the home side has a season BTTS rate of 63%, but the away team only 20% and averages 0.2 goals per match, which significantly reduces their scoring probability. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 7 and conceded 7 (1.4/1.4 avg), while the away team scored 2 and conceded 12 (0.4 scored and 2.4 conceded), meaning the home side is likely to score while the away team rarely does. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.11 vs 1.09), but the away side’s shot conversion is only 2% versus 13% for the home team, explaining the visitors’ low efficiency. Additionally the league has a high clean sheet rate of 76%, and seasonal clean sheets for away teams are 33% vs 19% for home teams, which together point to a greater likelihood of the visitors failing to score; therefore I assess BTTS at 30% for Yes and 70% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The total expected xG is 2.20 (Asyut Petroleum 1.11 + Raya Ghazl 1.09), which underpins the goals forecast. A Poisson model with a mean of 2.20 estimates the probability of at least 2 goals at ~64.5% and at least 3 goals at ~37.7% (over 3.5 ~18.1%). Seasonal stats support the over direction: Asyut has 81% of home matches over 1.5 and 56% over 2.5 at home and scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 1.4); Raya has only 19 goals this season (0.2 avg.) and 40% of matches over 1.5, despite an xG of 1.09 — low finishing is reflected in a 2% conversion rate versus Asyut’s 13%. Additionally, both teams had 60% of their last 5 matches over 2.5, and Raya recently conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal and price the probabilities as: Over 1.5 = 75%, Over 2.5 = 45% and Over 3.5 = 18%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely HT/FT scenario is a half-time draw and an Asyut Petroleum win after the match (X/1) — I assign this scenario a 43% probability. A draw at the break is common: Asyut were level at half-time in 56% of matches, Raya Ghazl in 67%, giving an average of about 62% probability of a draw before the break; the home side score 0.38 goals on average in the first half versus 0.07 for the visitors. After the break Asyut have a clear advantage — they score 0.63 goals on average in second halves, 94% of their second halves see at least one goal, and they scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90, suggesting greater activity and effectiveness late on. Raya Ghazl are in poor form: in their last 5 matches they have 5 defeats (0% wins), conceding 2.4 goals on average and scoring 0.4 in that period, and over the season away teams score only 0.2 goals per match, so a post-break turnaround by them is unlikely. Additionally the xG of both teams is similar (1.11 vs 1.09), but Asyut convert chances into goals far better (shot conversion 13% versus 2%), hence the X/1 scenario is the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Asyut Petroleum | Raya Ghazl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.53 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Asyut Petroleum is 107% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Asyut Petroleum · 0.61 goals / match - Raya Ghazl
Asyut Petroleum is 61% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.84 goals / match - Asyut Petroleum · 1.35 goals / match - Raya Ghazl
Asyut Petroleum scores in 68% of matches (21 of 31 matches), while Raya Ghazl keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
Raya Ghazl scores in 48% of matches (15 of 31 matches), while Asyut Petroleum keeps a clean sheet in 45% (14 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Asyut Petroleum
Over / Under - Raya Ghazl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Asyut Petroleum is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.32 pts / match - Asyut Petroleum · 1 pts / match - Raya Ghazl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Asyut Petroleum - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Raya Ghazl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 13%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Asyut Petroleum
Raya Ghazl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Second Division).
Teams vs league
| Asyut Petroleum | Liga | Raya Ghazl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.10 | 1.93 | • 1.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 41% | • 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 39% | 32% | ▲ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 38% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 52% | ▼ 45% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 52% | 68% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Asyut Petroleum 1 - 0 - 0 Raya Ghazl. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Asyut Petroleum vs Raya Ghazl?
The Second Division match finished Asyut Petroleum 1:0 Raya Ghazl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Asyut Petroleum vs Raya Ghazl?
Asyut Petroleum score 1.26 goals per game on average and Raya Ghazl 0.61. The Second Division average is 1.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Asyut Petroleum's matches and 42% of Raya Ghazl's.
What form are Asyut Petroleum and Raya Ghazl in?
Over the last 5 games Asyut Petroleum have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Raya Ghazl 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Asyut Petroleum vs Raya Ghazl?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.