Atalanta vs Parma: match statistics

Atalanta have won 60% of their home matches, while Parma have lost all 4 of their away games so far. At home, the hosts average 2.2 goals and 6.6 shots on target per match; away from home, the visitors score just 0.5 goals and average 3.25 shots on target. Atalanta’s advantage is also reflected in chance quality: their home xG is 1.86, while Parma concede chances worth an average of 2.32 xG away from home. In their last 5 matches, Atalanta have scored 12 goals compared with Parma’s 2, and Parma have failed to win any of those games. The hosts’ defence remains a concern, having conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches, but Parma’s poor away form points to an Atalanta win.

The biggest obstacle to BTTS - Yes is Parma’s attack: away from home, they average 0.5 goals and fail to score in 50% of matches. They have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 games, although Atalanta conceded an average of 2.2 goals over that period, giving the visitors a genuine chance. A goal from the hosts looks more likely, as Parma concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and have not kept a clean sheet on the road, while Atalanta have scored 12 goals in their last 5 appearances. Although both teams scored in 80% of Atalanta’s matches over this period, the equivalent figure for Parma was only 40%, making BTTS - No the more likely outcome: at least one team is expected not to score.

Atalanta have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while Parma have conceded an average of 1.8 goals over the same period. The visitors’ defence is also vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals and allowing opponents to create chances worth 2.32 xG. However, Parma have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, so the larger share of the projected 2.75 goals is expected to come from the hosts. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest backing: the line has been cleared in 60% of Atalanta’s home matches and 100% of Parma’s away matches, although the visitors’ poor scoring form limits confidence in the prediction.

Atalanta led at the break in 3 of its last 5 matches, while Parma failed to score in the first half in its recent games and did not lead at half-time in any of them. This points to the hosts taking the lead after 45 minutes, although a half-time draw remains a significant possibility, as Parma recorded one in 50% of the matches analysed. Across their last 5 matches, Atalanta averaged 2.4 goals, compared with Parma’s 0.4; moreover, the visitors lost every match included in the away statistics. Atalanta’s average xG stands at 1.26, versus Parma’s 0.98, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth an average of 2.32 xG per match, further supporting a home win. Atalanta’s defence is a risk, having conceded an average of 2.2 goals in its last 5 matches, but the combination of its scoring advantage and half-time results makes 1/1 the most likely scenario.