Atalanta vs Sassuolo: match statistics

Atalanta sit 2nd in the table, while Sassuolo are only 17th, clearly highlighting the difference in quality and stability between the two sides. The hosts have collected 7 points from their last five matches, with 3 wins, a draw and just one defeat, while Sassuolo have also accumulated 7 points but have lost as many as 2 matches. Atalanta have scored 9 goals and conceded 5 during this period, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Sassuolo have scored 10 goals, but their defence has allowed 8, averaging 1.6 goals conceded per match and increasing the hosts’ chances of capitalising on home advantage. The visitors’ attacking form could allow them to find the net, but Atalanta’s superior league position and stronger defensive record point towards a home win.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, providing a clear argument for a goal on each side. During this period, Atalanta averaged 1.8 goals per match, while Sassuolo averaged even more at 2.0, with total tallies of 9 and 10 goals respectively. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Sassuolo’s defence allowed 1.6 goals per match, which particularly increases Atalanta’s chances of finding the net. Atalanta’s xG stands at 1.37 and Sassuolo’s at 1.25, with xGA figures of 1.48 and 1.28 respectively, indicating that both teams create chances while also allowing opponents scoring opportunities. The most likely scenario is therefore BTTS - Yes, although this is not an overwhelmingly one-sided signal given Atalanta’s relatively solid recent average of goals conceded.

Atalanta’s last five matches produced an average of 2.8 goals, with the team scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0. Sassuolo’s games were even more open: the team averaged 2.0 goals scored but allowed opponents 1.6, for a total of 3.6 goals per match. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 60% of Atalanta’s last matches and in as many as 80% of Sassuolo’s games, while both teams scored in 60% of those fixtures. At the same time, the xG figures are more moderate, at 1.37 for Atalanta and 1.25 for Sassuolo, so the highest 3.5 line does not provide an equally strong signal. The safest edge is on Over 1.5: a projected 2.90 goals and the attacking performances of both teams clearly support at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Atalanta win, as the hosts have scored just 0.6 goals before the break in their last five matches and were level at half-time in 40% of their games. Sassuolo have started more offensively, scoring an average of 1.2 first-half goals and leading in 40% of matches, so scenarios involving the visitors holding the lead at the break also retain a significant share. After the interval, however, Atalanta’s advantage is clear: they have scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded just 0.2, while Sassuolo have averaged 0.8 goals both scored and conceded. The hosts won the second half in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for the visitors, and their goal difference in this period was +5. Overall form also slightly favours Atalanta, who won 3 of their 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, compared with Sassuolo’s 2 defeats and an average of 1.4 points per match.