Athletic Carpi vs Renate: match statistics

Athletic Carpi are favorites after recording 3 wins in 11 league matches, while Renate have yet to win and have suffered 6 defeats. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 goals; the visitors have not won during the same period, scoring 4 goals and drawing three times. At home, Carpi average 1.8 goals with a 17% shot conversion rate, compared with Renate’s 1.2 goals and 10% conversion rate away from home. The hosts’ defence remains a concern, however: they concede an average of 2.2 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Renate’s away xG stands at 1.55, compared with Carpi’s 1.45 at home. A home win is therefore the most likely outcome, although the fact that both teams have drawn 40% of their respective home and away matches suggests that a share of the points should also be considered.

Renate have scored in every away match but have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, which points to goals at both ends. Athletic Carpi score just 0.5 goals per home match and have failed to score in 67% of those games. However, Renate concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home, with an average xG against of 1.83. The hosts generate 1.41 xG at home, so their poor finishing is a risk but does not rule out a goal against this defence. Both teams have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, while Athletic Carpi conceded an average of 1.8 goals during that period. Therefore, BTTS - Yes has a slight edge, although the hosts’ frequent failure to score limits confidence in the pick.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line was not exceeded in 83% of Athletic Carpi matches and 60% of Renate matches. Neither team has recorded a match with at least 5 goals (0%), limiting the case for a very high-scoring game. The 2.5-goal forecast nevertheless accounts for the attacking potential: the home and away teams’ average xG is 1.41 and 1.55, respectively, while Renate concede an average of 2.0 goals per match. The lower line is less reliable, as Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Renate matches but only 33% of Carpi matches; this is why the advantage only emerges at the 3.5-goal line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Athletic Carpi were level at the break in 67% of their home matches, while Renate were level in 60% of their away games. The hosts average just 0.17 goals in the first half at home, further weighing against them taking an early lead. Carpi’s recent form supports a home win after the break: across their last five matches, the hosts averaged 1.0 second-half goals, while Renate conceded 0.8 per second half. Carpi won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Renate won none, although the hosts’ slow starts—they were trailing at half-time in 4 of those 5 games—limit confidence in the forecast. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a home win has the strongest combined statistical backing.