Athletic Club Bilbao vs Atlético Madrid: match statistics

Atlético Madrid sit 4th and remain unbeaten after three matches, while Athletic have a record of 1 win and 2 defeats. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals during that run and averaging 2 points per game, whereas the hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 fixtures, conceding 9 goals. Atlético score an average of 3 goals per away match with a 25% conversion rate, while Athletic concede as many as 3 goals per home game and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Bilbao do create plenty of chances, averaging 18 shots and recording an xG of 2.30, so they could find the net, but their current defensive vulnerability clearly increases the likelihood of the more clinical visitors prevailing. Atlético’s advantage is further underlined by their perfect away record so far: a 100% win rate and a positive goal difference of +2.

The BTTS signal primarily supports Atlético, who are averaging 3.0 goals per match in the current campaign, have kept no clean sheets and have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches. Athletic average 2.0 goals at home, generate an xG of 1.88 and register 5.0 shots on target per match, while Atlético’s defence allows opponents an xG of 2.05. However, in their last five matches, Bilbao have reduced their average goals scored to 0.8, with BTTS occurring in only 40% of their games, which clearly limits confidence in the pick. At the same time, the hosts conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period, while Atlético scored 2.0 goals and recorded BTTS in 80% of their appearances. The combination of the visitors’ highly vulnerable defence and Atlético’s consistent attacking efficiency slightly favours BTTS - Yes.

The 2.70-goal forecast is primarily supported by Atlético’s open games, which average 3.0 goals, with all of the team’s matches surpassing the 1.5-goal line. The visitors have scored an average of 2.0 goals in their last five matches, while Athletic have conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period. Athletic are in weaker current offensive form, averaging just 0.8 goals scored across five appearances, but their opponents have failed to keep a single clean sheet and concede an average of 1.4 goals. The xG data also points to chances at both ends: Athletic create an average of 1.30 xG, while Atlético allow opponents 1.58 xG. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have recorded 100% of their season matches with at least two goals, while the 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

Atlético are showing clearly better current form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals and 2.0 points, while Athletic have scored just 0.8 goals, conceded 1.8, and lost 4 of their 5 games. The visitors are particularly strong before half-time, as they have not been behind at the break in this run, led in 40% of matches, and boast a positive half-time goal difference of 4:0. Athletic went into half-time trailing in as many as 60% of their last five appearances, and scored just 0.2 goals per match after the interval. Additionally, Atlético won 60% of their recent matches, compared with just 20% for the hosts, making the most likely HT/FT outcome a lead for the visitors at the break followed by an away win: 2/2.