Athletic Club Bilbao vs CA Osasuna: match statistics

Bilbao has the edge in quality of attacking situations: average xG at home is 1.71, while Osasuna averages 1.05 xG away. The hosts average 14.88 shots and 4.94 on target per home match versus Osasuna’s 9.06 shots and 2.5 on target away, translating to 1.25 goals per game for Athletic compared to only 0.69 goals for Osasuna on the road. In the last 5 fixtures Athletic scored 3 goals, recorded 1 win and 4 losses (0.6 points per game), while Osasuna scored 7 goals, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (1.2 points per game). Defensively the hosts concede 1.19 goals per home match, and Osasuna concedes 1.31 goals away; in the last 5 matches Athletic conceded 9 goals, Osasuna 8. Considering the superior xG (1.71 vs 1.05), a much lower share of clean-sheet-less games for the hosts (25% vs 63%) and the advantage in shots and accuracy, I expect an Athletic win (55%); a draw is 25% and an Osasuna win 20%.

The analysis indicates a stronger BTTS - Yes scenario (65%) versus No (35%). Athletic at home has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, scores on average 1.73 goals per match with xG 1.59 and records 5.07 shots on target (conversion rate 12%), while conceding 1.13 goals, meaning the hosts regularly create and allow scoring chances. Osasuna’s season scoring average is weak at 0.69 and they have 63% of away matches without a goal, yet in the last 5 matches the visitors have BTTS 80%, scoring 1.4 goals on average and generating xG 1.81, indicating an improvement in offense. Additionally, Athletic has conceded 1.8 goals on average in the last 5 (9 conceded), whereas Osasuna scored 7 goals over the same period, so the visitors have a realistic chance to score. Considering Athletic’s 67% home BTTS, the league-level BTTS of 56% and Osasuna’s last-5 form, the Yes scenario appears strongest.

Considering xG, Athletic has 1.59 xG per match with 1.27 xG conceded, while Osasuna has 1.05 xG per match with 1.65 xG conceded; averaging these values yields expected goals of 1.57 for Athletic and 1.04 for Osasuna (total 2.61). Additionally, Athletic averages 14.0 shots and 5.07 shots on target per match with a conversion rate of 12%, versus 9.06 shots and 2.5 shots on target (8% conversion) for Osasuna, which reinforces the home side’s offensive edge. Season-to-date Athletic has had 87% of matches over 1.5 goals, while Osasuna 50%; both teams recorded 60% of matches over 2.5 in their last 5 games, so there is a strong signal toward the lower over line. Given the expected 2.61 goals and seasonal percentages (home over2.5 53% vs away 38%), the Over 1.5 line is the safest (high probability ~85%), whereas Over 2.5 is moderately likely (57%), and Over 3.5 has low chances (28%) due to season rates of 33%/25% for home and away.

I select 1/1 (home team leads at the break and wins) as the most likely scenario. Athletic led at half-time in 9 home matches, representing 60% of their home fixtures, and they average 1.0 goal in the first half versus 0.25 for Osasuna, so the lead at the break is pronounced. Over the full match the hosts score 1.73 goals on average and have an xG of 1.59 with 5.07 shots on target, while Osasuna records 0.69 goals per game, xG 1.05 and 2.5 shots on target, indicating a clear attacking advantage for Bilbao. Additionally, Athletic win at home in 53% of cases, while Osasuna win only 13% of away matches; opponents generate on average 1.65 xG against them, which increases the probability that the hosts will maintain their lead through to full-time.