Athletic Club Bilbao vs Celta de Vigo: match statistics
Athletic Club Bilbao vs Celta de Vigo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Athletic Club Bilbao played Celta de Vigo in La Liga (Spain). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: San Mamés Barria. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Athletic Club Bilbao: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Celta de Vigo: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Athletic Club Bilbao scores 1.11 and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Celta de Vigo scores 1.42 and concedes 1.31. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Athletic Club Bilbao 50%, Celta de Vigo 64%. Over 2.5: Athletic Club Bilbao 47%, Celta de Vigo 47%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Athletic Club Bilbao has higher xG: 1.56 vs 1.23. Athletic Club Bilbao: 13.5 shots per match, Celta de Vigo: 10.2.
Match halves
Athletic Club Bilbao: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.64. Celta de Vigo: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.92.
Goals by minute
Athletic Club Bilbao: 76-90+ (13 goals). Celta de Vigo: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
La Liga: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Athletic Club Bilbao holds a small but meaningful advantage in chance creation: home xG for Athletic is 1.67 versus Celta’s away xG of 1.09, with 14.39 shots per game (4.78 on target) compared to 8.94 shots (3.78 on target). However, the visitors are markedly more efficient — Celta’s conversion rate is 14% versus Athletic’s 8%, and Celta have 51 goals this season compared to 40 for the hosts. Defensively, Athletic better limits the quality of opposition chances (xG against 0.97 at home vs 1.50 xG against for Celta away), although average goals conceded are similar: 1.11 (Athletic at home) vs 1.06 (Celta away). Form is comparable — both teams have scored 7 and conceded 7 in the last 5 matches and have 2 wins in that period — suggesting an even but active contest. Considering Athletic’s advantage in xG and shot volume and Celta’s higher efficiency, I forecast a narrow home win (1) with probability distribution: 45% home, 30% draw, 25% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams display strong seasonal BTTS figures: Athletic 67% and Celta 61%, versus the league average of 56%. Athletic averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per match, while Celta scores 1.28 and concedes 1.06, indicating Athletic is more prone to conceding (1.56) and thus gives opponents opportunities. In the last 5 matches Athletic has only 40% BTTS versus Celta’s 60%, but both teams scored 7 goals in those 5 fixtures (1.4 per game), and Athletic produced 1.28 xG against Celta’s 0.92 xG, which suggests genuine attacking potential. Additionally Athletic averages 11.44 shots and 4.44 on target per match, Celta 8.94 and 3.78, with an equal conversion rate of 14%, and Athletic’s low clean sheets (17% vs Celta’s 33%) increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering these numbers, I assess BTTS at 68% for 'Yes' and 32% for 'No' and recommend a 'Yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I estimate Athletic to score around 1.44 goals and Celta around 1.22, totaling ~2.66 goals (Athletic xG_for 1.37 vs Celta allows xG 1.50; Celta xG_for 1.09 vs Athletic allows xG 1.35). Athletic score over 1.5 goals at home in 94% of matches, Celta in 67% — average 80.5% — therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 82%. For the 2.5 line, Poisson with λ=2.66 gives about a 49.6% chance of more than 2.5 goals, and seasonal Over2.5 figures are 50% for Athletic and 44% for Celta, so I set a 50/50 split for over/under 2.5. The 3.5 line is unlikely: seasonal Over3.5 is 28% (Athletic) and 22% (Celta), and Poisson indicates ≈27.6% for ≥4 goals, so Over3.5 28% and Under 72%. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side Over) due to combined xG 2.66, high home Over1.5 rate for Athletic (94%) and average 11.44 shots for Athletic and 8.94 shots for Celta.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-Time analysis points to a draw: the home side scores on average 0.67 goals by half-time, the visitors 0.33, and the share of HT draws is 39% for Athletic and 44% for Celta, so I estimate about a 41% chance of an HT draw. The Full-Time outcome favors Celta — the visitors win 44% of matches versus 28% for Athletic and collect 1.67 points per match compared to 1.11 for the hosts, which increases the probability of a turnaround after the break. The second half leans toward decisive results: Celta averages 1.61 points in second halves versus 1.33 for Athletic, and at home there was at least one goal after the break in 100% of matches and for visitors in 83%, raising the likelihood of goal changes after half-time. Athletic create more chances (on average 11.44 shots and 1.37 xG versus 8.94 shots and 1.09 xG for Celta), so although an HT draw is probable, the numbers indicate a greater chance of Celta securing the win in the second half; therefore I view X/2 as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Athletic Club Bilbao | Celta de Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Celta de Vigo is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Athletic Club Bilbao · 1.42 goals / match - Celta de Vigo
Celta de Vigo is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.47 goals / match - Athletic Club Bilbao · 1.31 goals / match - Celta de Vigo
Athletic Club Bilbao scores in 64% of matches (23 of 36 matches), while Celta de Vigo keeps a clean sheet in 25% (9 of 36 matches).
Celta de Vigo scores in 83% of matches (30 of 36 matches), while Athletic Club Bilbao keeps a clean sheet in 17% (6 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Athletic Club Bilbao
Over / Under - Celta de Vigo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Athletic Club Bilbao - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Celta de Vigo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Athletic Club Bilbao
Celta de Vigo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (La Liga).
Teams vs league
| Athletic Club Bilbao | Liga | Celta de Vigo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.58 | 2.69 | • 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 50% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 24% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 83% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Athletic Club Bilbao 0 - 0 - 1 Celta de Vigo. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Athletic Club Bilbao vs Celta de Vigo?
The La Liga match finished Athletic Club Bilbao 1:1 Celta de Vigo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Athletic Club Bilbao vs Celta de Vigo?
Athletic Club Bilbao score 1.11 goals per game on average and Celta de Vigo 1.42. The La Liga average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Athletic Club Bilbao's matches and 64% of Celta de Vigo's.
What form are Athletic Club Bilbao and Celta de Vigo in?
Over the last 5 games Athletic Club Bilbao have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Celta de Vigo 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Athletic Club Bilbao vs Celta de Vigo?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.