Athletic Club vs Londrina: match statistics

Athletic Club have the home advantage: they have won 38% of their home matches, while Londrina have lost 69% of their away games. The hosts average 1.19 goals scored and 1.00 conceded at home, while the visitors score 1.06 and concede as many as 1.69 goals per away match. The quality of chances also favours Athletic: their home xG stands at 1.57, compared with the 1.77 xG Londrina have conceded away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts have picked up 5 points and the visitors 3, although both teams have won just once. Londrina have failed to keep a clean sheet in any away match, making an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome.

BTTS has landed in 44% of Athletic Club’s matches and 63% of Londrina’s, giving a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score. The hosts average 1.44 goals per game, while the visitors concede 1.69; additionally, Athletic’s xG is 1.59 compared with the 1.77 xG Londrina allow, making a home goal look likely. Londrina average 1.06 goals scored, while Athletic concede 1.25, and over their last 5 matches the teams conceded 1.4 and 1.6 goals per game, respectively. There is still significant risk in backing BTTS - Yes, as Athletic keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches, while each team has failed to score in 38% of its games. Even so, the hosts’ attacking numbers and Londrina’s defensive vulnerability tip the balance in favour of BTTS - Yes, although this is not a strong signal.

The Over 1.5 goals line has the strongest support: it has been cleared in 69% of Athletic Club matches and 81% of Londrina matches. The hosts average 1.44 goals scored, while the visitors concede 1.69, increasing the likelihood of Athletic Club finding the net. Londrina, meanwhile, average 1.06 goals scored, and Athletic Club concede 1.25; across their last five matches, both teams have featured in games averaging 3.0 goals. While the data points to at least two goals, Over 2.5 goals is less certain: it has landed in 56% of the hosts' matches and 69% of the visitors' matches.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Athletic Club win: the hosts were level at the break in 9 of 16 matches, including four of their last five. Londrina were trailing at half-time in 11 of 16 matches, but the hosts had a lead at the break only three times, so I rate the 1/1 scenario slightly lower. Athletic Club’s full-time win is supported by an average xG of 1.59 compared with the visitors’ 1.32, as well as the fact that Londrina concede an average of 1.69 goals per match and have lost 69% of their games. The hosts average 0.88 goals after the break, compared with 0.56 before it, increasing the likelihood that they will settle a closely contested match in the second half. There is still significant risk, as Athletic Club have won only 25% of their matches so far, while the visitors average 0.69 goals after the break.