Athletic Club vs Novorizontino: match statistics

Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, with an 8:3 goal difference, while Novorizontino have scored just 4 goals and suffered 3 defeats over the same period. At home, the hosts concede only 0.64 goals per match on average, while their average attacking xG stands at 1.48, higher than the 1.36 recorded by the visitors away from home. Novorizontino do have a better average goals-scored tally on the road, 1.5 compared with Athletic’s 1.0, but they fail to score in as many as 42% of away matches. Athletic win 45% of their home games, compared with the visitors’ 33% away win rate, and, combined with the hosts’ clearly superior current form, this points to a narrow Athletic victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Novorizontino kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while both teams scored in just 33% of their league games. The visitors failed to score in 42% of their matches this season, have averaged only 0.8 goals per game across their last five outings, and BTTS occurred in just 20% of those matches. Athletic Club should have chances to score, as they create an average of 1.78 xG and register 5.3 shots on target per match, while their opponents concede an average of 1.47 xG. At the same time, the home side concede an average of 1.1 goals per game this season, but have allowed only 3 goals in their last five matches, making the most likely outcome one in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is on Under 3.5, as only 20% of Athletic Club's matches and 25% of Novorizontino's games went above this line, while 80% and 75%, respectively, ended with a maximum of three goals. In their last five matches, the hosts conceded just 0.6 goals per game, while the visitors scored only 0.8, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. Novorizontino kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, while Athletic Club failed to score in 20% of games, making a scenario with limited output from one side also plausible. The hosts create more chances, averaging 1.78 xG and 5.3 shots on target, but their projected 1.35 goals are not enough on their own to challenge the low 3.5 line. The combined projection of 2.20 goals remains below 3.5, while the last five matches for both teams produced Over 2.5 in only 40% of Athletic Club's games and 20% of Novorizontino's.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Athletic Club win, as the home side were level at the break in 80% of their matches, compared with 58% for Novorizontino. Both teams’ first halves tend to be low-scoring: Athletic average 0.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded before the break, while the visitors score 0.58 and concede 0.42. After the interval, the advantage shifts to the home side, who average 1.00 goal scored, including 1.00 per match across their last five games, while conceding just 0.20. Current form also favours Athletic: they have won 60% of their last five matches and remain unbeaten, whereas Novorizontino have lost 60% of theirs, scoring just 0.80 goals on average. The hosts also hold a clear edge in the quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.78 compared with the opponents’ 1.36, so they should settle an evenly matched opening in the second half.