ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal: match statistics
ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
ATK Mohun Bagan played East Bengal in Indian Super League (India). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
ATK Mohun Bagan: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. East Bengal: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
ATK Mohun Bagan scores 1.82 and concedes 0.64 goals per match. East Bengal scores 2.45 and concedes 0.82. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: ATK Mohun Bagan 45%, East Bengal 55%. Over 2.5: ATK Mohun Bagan 27%, East Bengal 73%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
ATK Mohun Bagan has higher xG: 2.31 vs 2.22. ATK Mohun Bagan: 18.8 shots per match, East Bengal: 19.0.
Match halves
ATK Mohun Bagan: half-time lead 55%, second-half goals 0.73. East Bengal: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.45.
Goals by minute
ATK Mohun Bagan: 31-45+ (5 goals). East Bengal: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Indian Super League: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Both teams have identical season records of 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, but East Bengal have scored more goals (27 vs 20) and netted 11 goals in the last 5 matches versus ATK Mohun Bagan’s 6. The home side generate higher expected goals (avg xG 2.48), average 20.14 shots with 6.86 on target, maintain 68% possession and concede just 0.71 goals per game with 43% clean sheets. The visitors on the road average 16.5 shots per game, 8 on target and a higher conversion rate of 15%, translating to an average of 2.5 goals away and 0% matches without scoring. The defensive gap is visible in xG against (ATK 0.95 vs East 1.42) and lower goals conceded by the hosts (0.71 vs 1.00), although East have better recent point form over the last 5 (avg 2.2 points per game vs the hosts’ 1.8). Considering the hosts’ game control, higher xG and defensive stability versus the visitors’ shooting efficiency, I forecast a narrow home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) and 25% (No), therefore I recommend the "Yes" market. The strongest signal is East Bengal with a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 27 goals scored (avg. 2.50 per match); in the last 5 matches they scored 11 goals (2.2 per match) and have no clean sheets this season (0%), which strongly indicates they both score and concede. ATK Mohun Bagan has significant offensive potential (20 goals this season, 2.44 per match, xG_for 2.25) but a better home defense (avg. 0.78 goals conceded and 56% clean sheets), hence their seasonal BTTS is only 44%. In the last 5 meetings both teams have 60% BTTS, and average xG in that period is about 1.92 for the home side and 1.91 for the away side, showing balanced chance creation. Considering East Bengal’s 100% BTTS, relatively high xG 2.25/2.09 and shots on target 8.0 vs 6.56, the Both Teams To Score scenario appears more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams possess potent attacks: ATK Mohun Bagan averages 2.44 goals per match and East Bengal 2.50; their seasonal xG are 2.25 (ATK) and 2.09 (East Bengal). Taking into account opponents’ average xG against (xG against 1.42 for East Bengal and 1.19 for ATK) I applied a simple averaging: (2.25+1.42)/2 = 1.84 for the home side and (2.09+1.19)/2 = 1.64 for the away side, yielding a total expected goals of 3.48. Seasonal rates confirm an offensive profile: East Bengal has 100% of matches with BTTS and 100% over 2.5 goals, while ATK has 78% of matches over 1.5 and 67% over 2.5, which increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game. A Poisson model for a total of 3.48 suggests approximate probabilities of over 1.5 ≈86%, over 2.5 ≈68% and over 3.5 ≈46%, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches ATK averaged 1.2 goals and East Bengal 2.2, which further supports a forecast of at least two goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts led at half-time in 5 of their matches so far (56%) and score an average of 1.11 goals by half-time versus 0.5 for the visitors, while conceding only 0.33 goals on average before the break. Overall the hosts have 13 first-half goals compared to the visitors' 3, indicating a clear advantage for the hosts in the opening 45 minutes. After the break the visitors are more active—averaging 2.0 goals in the second half and featuring in 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals after half-time; xG is similar (2.25 for the hosts vs. 2.09 for the visitors), so the visitors possess comeback capability. Nevertheless, the visitors have never led at half-time (0 occurrences) and average only 0.5 points earned by half-time versus 2.0 for the hosts, so the strongest signal is 1/1 (hosts leading at the break and winning) assigned a probability of 25%, while 1/2 (20%) and X/2 (15%) are realistic alternatives due to the visitors’ second-half pressure.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| ATK Mohun Bagan | East Bengal | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
East Bengal is 22% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 2.2 pts / match - East Bengal
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
East Bengal is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
1.82 goals / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 2.45 goals / match - East Bengal
ATK Mohun Bagan is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.64 goals / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 0.82 goals / match - East Bengal
ATK Mohun Bagan scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while East Bengal keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 matches).
East Bengal scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while ATK Mohun Bagan keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - ATK Mohun Bagan
Over / Under - East Bengal
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
ATK Mohun Bagan is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 1.73 pts / match - East Bengal
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
ATK Mohun Bagan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 55% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
East Bengal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
ATK Mohun Bagan
East Bengal
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Indian Super League).
Teams vs league
| ATK Mohun Bagan | Liga | East Bengal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.45 | 2.45 | ▲ 3.27 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 52% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 27% | 42% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 29% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): ATK Mohun Bagan 2 - 0 - 0 East Bengal. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal?
The Indian Super League match finished ATK Mohun Bagan 1:1 East Bengal. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between ATK Mohun Bagan and East Bengal?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches ATK Mohun Bagan won 2, East Bengal won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal?
ATK Mohun Bagan score 1.82 goals per game on average and East Bengal 2.45. The Indian Super League average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 45% of ATK Mohun Bagan's matches and 55% of East Bengal's.
What form are ATK Mohun Bagan and East Bengal in?
Over the last 5 games ATK Mohun Bagan have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and East Bengal 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal?
The statistical background for ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.