ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab: match statistics
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
ATK Mohun Bagan played Minerva Punjab in Indian Super League (India). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
ATK Mohun Bagan: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Minerva Punjab: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
ATK Mohun Bagan scores 2.14 and concedes 0.57 goals per match. Minerva Punjab scores 1.50 and concedes 0.83. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: ATK Mohun Bagan 43%, Minerva Punjab 67%. Over 2.5: ATK Mohun Bagan 29%, Minerva Punjab 33%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
ATK Mohun Bagan has higher xG: 2.47 vs 1.43. ATK Mohun Bagan: 20.1 shots per match, Minerva Punjab: 10.7.
Match halves
ATK Mohun Bagan: half-time lead 71%, second-half goals 0.71. Minerva Punjab: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
ATK Mohun Bagan: 31-45+ (5 goals). Minerva Punjab: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Indian Super League: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
ATK Mohun Bagan are the favorites due to a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 71% possession, 22.2 shots with 8.2 on target and xG 2.73 versus Minerva Punjab’s 44% possession, 12.67 shots (4.33 on target) and xG 1.51 away. The hosts convert this dominance into goals — averaging 2.8 scored and 0.6 conceded at home (goal difference +11), while Minerva on the road score 1.67 and concede 0.67 (difference +3). Although Minerva are in good overall form (2.2 points per game in the last 5 and sequence W D D W W), ATK have a strong home record: 4 wins in 5 (80% win rate, home form W W W W L). Additionally, the hosts fail to score in only 20% of home matches versus 33% for Minerva, and the home defence allows on average 0.73 xG per match compared to 0.91 xG for the visitors, indicating greater defensive stability. Consequently, I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes as more likely: ATK Mohun Bagan has a season BTTS rate of 100% and 0% clean sheets, while Minerva has season BTTS 33% and 33% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches the home side records 60% BTTS with an average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, and the visitors 80% BTTS with an average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. xG and shot data support this conclusion — season xG_for is 1.35 (home) vs 1.51 (away), xG_against 0.87 vs 0.91, and in the last 5 home xG is 2.31 vs 1.47 for the visitors with an average 4.33 shots on target for each team. Additionally the home team has scored 15 and conceded 4 goals this season, and the visitors 9 scored and 5 conceded; combined with the league BTTS level of 54% this provides a strong signal for both teams to score. On this basis I estimate BTTS probability at approximately 78% and No BTTS at 22%, so the best betting selection is "Yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG (home xG 1.35 and xG against visitors 0.91; away xG 1.51 and xG against home 0.87) I calculated expected goals as (1.35+0.91)/2 = 1.13 for ATK and (1.51+0.87)/2 = 1.19 for Minerva, total = 2.32. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.32 yields approximately a 67% chance of >1.5 goals, 41% for >2.5 goals and 20% for >3.5 goals, which forms the probabilistic basis. Season data reinforces the signal for Over 1.5: ATK at home have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, Minerva away 67%, and ATK record 100% BTTS versus Minerva 33%. In the last 5 matches ATK average 2.2 goals (11 goals in 5 matches), Minerva 1.8 (9 goals), with average shots 8.67 vs 12.67 and 4.33 shots on target for both, which further supports scoring. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (I assign probability ~74%); Over 2.5 is rated moderate (~38%), and Over 3.5 unlikely (~20%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics clearly favor the away team: they have 67% wins this season versus 33% for the home side, average xG of 1.51 compared to 1.35 and on average 12.67 shots versus 8.67 for the hosts, indicating superiority in chance creation. The away team most often leads at the break — they are leading in 67% of cases and average 1.67 goals by half-time, while the home side averages only 0.33 goals by half-time, hence a strong signal for the away team to lead after 45 minutes. However, the hosts are more dangerous after the break: in second halves they score on average 1.0 goal, their total goals in second halves average 1.67, and their average points gained in those second halves is 1.33, which increases the realistic chance of drawing level or effecting a turnaround. Taking into account the away team’s advantage in xG and shots (1.51 and 12.67 vs 1.35 and 8.67) and the fact they lead at the break in 67% of matches, the most likely scenario is the away team leading at half-time and winning the match. Therefore I assign the highest probability to this scenario and select HT/FT 2/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| ATK Mohun Bagan | Minerva Punjab | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Minerva Punjab is 38% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 2.2 pts / match - Minerva Punjab
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
ATK Mohun Bagan is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
2.14 goals / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 1.5 goals / match - Minerva Punjab
ATK Mohun Bagan is 46% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.57 goals / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 0.83 goals / match - Minerva Punjab
ATK Mohun Bagan scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Minerva Punjab keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Minerva Punjab scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while ATK Mohun Bagan keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - ATK Mohun Bagan
Over / Under - Minerva Punjab
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
ATK Mohun Bagan is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.29 pts / match - ATK Mohun Bagan · 1.83 pts / match - Minerva Punjab
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
ATK Mohun Bagan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 71% of matches and wins 57%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Minerva Punjab - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
ATK Mohun Bagan
Minerva Punjab
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Indian Super League).
Teams vs league
| ATK Mohun Bagan | Liga | Minerva Punjab | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.45 | ▼ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 55% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 39% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 25% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 80% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Minerva PunjabYellow cardLikmabam Rakesh
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): ATK Mohun Bagan 2 - 0 - 0 Minerva Punjab. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
The Indian Super League match finished ATK Mohun Bagan 3:2 Minerva Punjab. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between ATK Mohun Bagan and Minerva Punjab?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches ATK Mohun Bagan won 2, Minerva Punjab won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
ATK Mohun Bagan score 2.14 goals per game on average and Minerva Punjab 1.50. The Indian Super League average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 43% of ATK Mohun Bagan's matches and 67% of Minerva Punjab's.
What form are ATK Mohun Bagan and Minerva Punjab in?
Over the last 5 games ATK Mohun Bagan have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Minerva Punjab 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.