Atlanta vs Atlético Rafaela: match statistics
Atlanta vs Atlético Rafaela: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlanta played Atlético Rafaela in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Atlanta: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Atlético Rafaela: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlanta scores 1.17 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Atlético Rafaela scores 1.00 and concedes 0.67. League average: 1.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlanta 42%, Atlético Rafaela 42%. Over 2.5: Atlanta 42%, Atlético Rafaela 33%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 31%.
xG, shots and style
Atlanta has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.20. Atlanta: 10.5 shots per match, Atlético Rafaela: 9.2.
Match halves
Atlanta: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.83. Atlético Rafaela: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Atlanta: 76-90+ (5 goals). Atlético Rafaela: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.91 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 31%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlanta holds a clear advantage in possession and shot volume: at home they average 53% possession, 11.43 shots and 3.43 shots on target per match, versus Atlético Rafaela away with 38% possession, 9.2 shots and 2.8 on target. Consequently the hosts create more high-quality chances — Atlanta’s home xG is 1.42 with xG against 1.03, while the visitors’ away xG is 1.09 with xG against 1.8, indicating Rafaela generates fewer valuable opportunities and concedes more. In attack Atlanta averages 1.29 goals per home match (14 goals this season) with an 11% conversion rate, whereas Rafaela scores 0.8 goals away (12 goals this season) with a 9% conversion. Recent form also favors the hosts: Atlanta in the last five has 4 wins and 1 draw, 8 goals for and 2 against, and 2.6 points per game; Rafaela’s last 5 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, 6 goals for and 3 against, and 1.6 PPG. Considering superior game control, higher quality of created chances (xG 1.42 vs 1.09), better home defense (0.71 vs 1.0 goals conceded per match) and form (2.6 vs 1.6 PPG), I expect a home win, although draw risk exists (Atlanta failed to score in 29% of home matches vs 20% for Rafaela away).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project No Goal (BTTS - No). Atlanta have kept a clean sheet in 71% of home matches and concede just 0.43 goals per game this season, which significantly limits Atlético Rafaela’s chances. Atlético Rafaela’s seasonal BTTS rate is 60% and they average 0.8 goals (xG_for 1.09) with 2.8 shots on target and a 9% conversion rate, but Atlanta average 4.0 shots on target and a 13% conversion and have conceded only 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches. In the last 5 games Atlanta scored 8 (1.6 per game) and conceded 2 (0.4), while Rafaela scored 6 (1.2) and conceded 3 (0.6), which together indicate a low goal exchange. Given a league context with 78% of matches featuring a clean sheet and a seasonal average of 1.9 goals per game, I assess the probability of No BTTS at roughly 70% versus 30% for BTTS (Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Atlanta averages 1.14 goals scored at home, while Atlético Rafaela scores 0.80 away; xG values are 1.27 for Atlanta and 1.09 for Rafaela, indicating a moderate number of scoring chances. Atlanta concedes only 0.43 goals and has 71% clean sheets this season, whereas Rafaela concedes 1.0 goal and has had 0% of matches over 3.5 goals this season. Considering the difference in xG against (Rafaela allows 1.8 xG) and shot efficiency, I estimated 1.35 expected goals for Atlanta and 0.80 for Rafaela, totaling 2.15. From the probability distribution this total implies roughly a 63% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~37% for Over 2.5 and only ~17% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Under 3.5. Additionally, Atlanta has only 14% of matches over 3.5 goals this season and Rafaela 0%, which reinforces the 'under' selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I forecast a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1). Both teams frequently level at the break: Atlanta were tied at half in 57% of matches, Atlético Rafaela in 80%, yielding an average of about a 69% chance of a HT draw. After the break Atlanta hold the advantage — average points at home 2.0 versus 1.0 away, shots on target 4.0 vs 2.8 and xG 1.27 vs 1.09 — so HT draws often swing in favor of the home side in the second half. Additionally the hosts seldom concede before half-time (on average 0.14 goals conceded to the break and 86% of matches with a clean sheet at the break), which is why X/1 received the highest probability (39%), with 1/1 at 12% and low values for away-favourable scenarios (2/2 only 6%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlanta | Atlético Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlanta is 63% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Atlanta · 1.6 pts / match - Atlético Rafaela
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlanta is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - Atlanta · 1 goals / match - Atlético Rafaela
Atlético Rafaela is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Atlanta · 0.67 goals / match - Atlético Rafaela
Atlanta scores in 67% of matches (8 of 12 matches), while Atlético Rafaela keeps a clean sheet in 58% (7 of 12 matches).
Atlético Rafaela scores in 75% of matches (9 of 12 matches), while Atlanta keeps a clean sheet in 42% (5 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlanta
Over / Under - Atlético Rafaela
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlanta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Rafaela - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlanta
Atlético Rafaela
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Atlanta | Liga | Atlético Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.92 | 1.91 | ▼ 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | • 42% | 41% | • 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 42% | 31% | ▲ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 39% | ▲ 58% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 42% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlanta vs Atlético Rafaela?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Atlanta 2:0 Atlético Rafaela. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlanta vs Atlético Rafaela?
Atlanta score 1.17 goals per game on average and Atlético Rafaela 1.00. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 31% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Atlanta's matches and 42% of Atlético Rafaela's.
What form are Atlanta and Atlético Rafaela in?
Over the last 5 games Atlanta have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Atlético Rafaela 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlanta vs Atlético Rafaela?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.