Atlanta vs Club Atlético Güemes: match statistics

Atlanta have a clear home advantage: they win 57% of their home matches, while Club Atlético Güemes win just 7% of their away games and lose 57%. The hosts concede only 0.71 goals per match at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, whereas the visitors score an average of 0.79 goals away from home. Atlanta also create better chances, recording an average xG of 1.46 compared with Güemes’ 1.10, while posting a lower xG against: 1.04 to 1.76. Neither side has been in particularly strong form recently, but Atlanta have won 2 of their last 5 matches, whereas Güemes have failed to win any of their games during this period and have drawn four times. The hosts’ low attacking output over their last five matches, with just 3 goals scored, points to a closely contested game, but the visitors’ defensive weakness should tip the balance in Atlanta’s favor.

A scoreless scenario for at least one of the teams is more likely, as Atlanta have averaged only 0.86 goals per game this season and just 0.6 across their last 5 matches. Club Atlético Güemes have also scored only 3 goals in their last five fixtures, averaging 0.6 goals with an xG of 0.99. BTTS - Yes has landed in just 20% of Atlanta’s last five matches, while the league average for both teams to score is a low 40%. Güemes do have a season BTTS rate of 71% and defend very poorly away from home, conceding an average of 1.86 goals, giving the hosts a chance to find the net. However, the current low attacking output of both sides, together with Atlanta’s xG of 0.88 over their last five league rounds, more strongly supports BTTS - No — meaning that at least one team is expected not to score, rather than automatically implying a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The match profile points to limited goal production: Atlanta average 0.86 goals per game, while Güemes average 0.79. In their last five matches, both teams scored just 3 goals, or 0.60 per game, and the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in only 20% of matches for each team. Average xG stands at 1.02 for the hosts and 1.10 for the visitors, although their current figures have dropped to 0.88 and 0.99, respectively. Historically, under 3.5 goals landed in 71% of Atlanta’s matches and as many as 86% of Güemes’ games, while neither team averages even one goal per match. Under 3.5 is therefore the strongest option, as it takes at least 4 goals to lose this bet—something clearly inconsistent with both teams’ attacking form and season-long profile.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X), as Atlanta were level at the break in 57% of their matches, while Güemes were level at half-time in as many as 60% of their last five games. Both teams are relatively ineffective before the break: the hosts average 0.36 goals and the visitors 0.43, with both sides scoring in this period in only 21% and 14% of their matches, respectively. Güemes have drawn four of their last five matches and have not won any of them, reinforcing the expectation of an even, cautious game after the interval as well. However, Atlanta hold a slight qualitative advantage at home, averaging 1.07 points per match compared with Güemes’ 0.57, which is why the half-time draw and home win at full-time (X/1) remains the second-most likely outcome.