Atlanta vs San Martín San Juan: match statistics

Atlanta has a clearly stronger home profile: they win 62% of their matches, while San Martín San Juan win just 23% of their away games and lose as many as 46%. The hosts score an average of 1.38 goals at home with an xG of 1.49, whereas the visitors manage only 0.92 goals away from home and create chances worth an average of 1.10 xG. Atlanta’s defence also looks more solid, conceding 0.69 goals per home match and keeping a clean sheet in 54% of appearances, compared with 1.15 goals conceded and a 23% clean-sheet rate for San Martín away from home. Both teams have scored 6 goals in their last five matches, but Atlanta have won twice during this period, while the visitors have won just once and recorded 3 draws. The hosts’ advantage in shots on target at home, 4.31 to 2.83, points to a greater likelihood of a narrow Atlanta victory.

Both teams have a clearly higher percentage of matches with goals from both sides than the league average: Atlanta 64% and San Martín San Juan 62%, compared with 40% across the competition. This trend is supported by their current form, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Atlanta’s last five matches and as many as 80% of San Martín’s, while Atlanta conceded 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per game. The hosts should create chances, given their season xG of 1.62 and average of 5.09 shots on target per match, while the visitors concede an average of 1.15 goals. San Martín scores just 0.92 goals per game this season, but their recent xG of 1.48 and average of 1.2 goals scored across their last five appearances increase the likelihood of them exploiting the hosts’ recently weaker defence. The strongest scenario therefore remains BTTS - Yes, although the league’s low goalscoring average limits confidence in this market.

The league profile is clearly low-scoring: the average is only 1.95 goals per match, while games with at least 3 goals account for 32% of the competition. Atlanta concede an average of 0.82 goals, whereas San Martín San Juan score just 0.92 away from home, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. Although the estimated xG points to a moderate number of chances—1.62 for Atlanta and 1.10 for San Martín—the combined projection of 2.37 goals still remains clearly below the 3.5-goal line. Historically, 91% of Atlanta’s matches and as many as 100% of San Martín’s matches finished with Under 3.5 goals, and neither team has recorded a game with more than 4 goals. Atlanta’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 3.2 goals, but strong seasonal and league indicators still give the greatest betting edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Atlanta were leading at half-time in 7 of their 11 home matches, or 64% of the time, while San Martín San Juan took the lead away from home only twice in 13 matches. The hosts concede just 0.09 goals per match before the break, while the visitors score only 0.38 goals during this phase, significantly reducing the likelihood of a scenario in which the away side can complete a turnaround. Over the full match, Atlanta have the stronger overall potential: their average xG stands at 1.62 compared with San Martín’s 1.10, and they also average 5.09 shots on target against their opponents’ 2.83. The hosts win 45% of their matches, while San Martín lose 46%, with average points per match of 1.73 for Atlanta compared with 1.00 for the visitors. A half-time draw remains a realistic threat, as the visitors were level at the break in 69% of their away matches; however, an Atlanta lead at half-time and maintaining it until full-time is the strongest single HT/FT outcome.