Atlanta vs San Martín Tucumán: match statistics

Atlanta head into the match after recording 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 games, while San Martín Tucumán have won twice, drawn once and lost twice over the same period. At home, Atlanta have won 63% of their matches, while San Martín have lost 44% of their away games. Atlanta concede an average of just 0.63 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 56% of matches; San Martín score an average of 0.88 goals away and fail to find the net in 38% of games. The hosts also create slightly better chances, averaging 1.45 xG at home compared with the visitors’ 1.20 xG away. These figures, combined with Atlanta’s 7:2 goal record over their last 5 matches compared with San Martín’s 8:8, point to a home win.

BTTS occurred in 44% of each team’s matches, while the league average is 39%, which does not provide a strong indication that both sides will score. The main obstacle for the visitors is Atlanta’s defense: it keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches and concedes an average of 0.69 goals, while San Martín scores an average of 0.88 goals and fails to score in 38% of matches. In their last 5 appearances, Atlanta conceded just 2 goals, although the visitors scored 8 during that period, so their scoring potential cannot be ruled out. The hosts have the clearer attacking threat, averaging 1.31 goals and an xG of 1.47, compared with the visitors’ 0.88 goals and xG of 1.20. Therefore, an Atlanta goal with San Martín failing to score is more likely than a scenario in which both teams find the net (BTTS - Yes).

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: 87% of each team's matches ended with no more than three goals. Atlanta concede an average of 0.69 goals and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, limiting the visitors' attacking potential; they score an average of 0.88 goals. On the other hand, the hosts average 1.31 goals, and their xG is 1.47 compared with San Martín Tucumán's 1.31 xG conceded, giving Atlanta the better chance of finding the net. Although at least three goals were scored in 60% of the visitors' last five matches, the corresponding figure for the hosts was just 20%, while the league average is 1.94 goals per match. A projected total of 2.15 goals gives Under 3.5 a clearer edge than the more demanding Under 2.5 line.

Atlanta have won 4 of their last 5 matches and were already leading at the break in 3 of them, while San Martín Tucumán have lost 2 of their last 5. Over this period, the hosts conceded an average of 0.4 goals per match compared with 1.6 for the visitors, which supports the likelihood of them holding on to any lead. Atlanta’s advantage is also reflected in their season xG figures: 1.47 expected goals and 0.89 expected goals conceded, compared with 1.20 and 1.31 respectively for their opponents. The Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of Atlanta leading at the break and winning at full time is therefore the strongest single pick, although a half-time draw remains a notable alternative, as Atlanta have been level at half-time in 56% of their matches.