Atlante vs Morelia: match statistics
Atlante presents a decisive advantage as the host with a 55% win rate on their own turf and an impressive goal difference of 46:19 for the season. The home team is characterized by possession dominance (63%) and high scoring efficiency with an average of 1.91 goals per match at home, while conceding just 0.73. Morelia performs significantly worse as a visitor – only 33% wins away, a negative goal difference (-1), and lower expected goals (xG 1.36 vs 2.32 for Atlante). The form of both teams in the last five matches is similar, but the advantage of the home ground and Atlante's offensive statistics give them a clear chance for the three points. Morelia's high percentage of away draws (42%) suggests that the visitors may put up resistance, hence a draw remains a realistic alternative scenario.
Atlante vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlante played Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 7 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Atlante: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Morelia: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlante scores 2.00 and concedes 0.83 goals per match. Morelia scores 1.40 and concedes 1.08. League average: 2.88 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlante 43%, Morelia 44%. Over 2.5: Atlante 48%, Morelia 52%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Atlante has higher xG: 1.95 vs 1.64. Atlante: 17.3 shots per match, Morelia: 13.9.
Match halves
Atlante: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 1.22. Morelia: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Atlante: 76-90+ (12 goals). Morelia: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.88 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlante presents a decisive advantage as the host with a 55% win rate on their own turf and an impressive goal difference of 46:19 for the season. The home team is characterized by possession dominance (63%) and high scoring efficiency with an average of 1.91 goals per match at home, while conceding just 0.73. Morelia performs significantly worse as a visitor – only 33% wins away, a negative goal difference (-1), and lower expected goals (xG 1.36 vs 2.32 for Atlante). The form of both teams in the last five matches is similar, but the advantage of the home ground and Atlante's offensive statistics give them a clear chance for the three points. Morelia's high percentage of away draws (42%) suggests that the visitors may put up resistance, hence a draw remains a realistic alternative scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlante | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Atlante · 2 pts / match - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlante is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Atlante · 1.4 goals / match - Morelia
Atlante is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.83 goals / match - Atlante · 1.08 goals / match - Morelia
Atlante scores in 83% of matches (19 of 23 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 40% (10 of 25 matches).
Morelia scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while Atlante keeps a clean sheet in 43% (10 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlante
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Atlante · 1.6 pts / match - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlante - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlante
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Atlante | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.83 | 2.88 | ▼ 2.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 54% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 53% | • 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 27% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 72% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | • 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Atlante 1 - 0 - 0 Morelia. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlante vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Atlante 2:1 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlante vs Morelia?
Atlante score 2.00 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.40. The Ascenso MX average is 2.88 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Atlante's matches and 44% of Morelia's.
What form are Atlante and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Atlante have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Morelia 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlante vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Atlante vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.