Atlas vs Cruz Azul: match statistics
Atlas vs Cruz Azul: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlas played Cruz Azul in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Atlas: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Cruz Azul: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlas scores 1.18 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Cruz Azul scores 1.79 and concedes 1.11. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlas 50%, Cruz Azul 71%. Over 2.5: Atlas 47%, Cruz Azul 53%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Cruz Azul has higher xG: 1.86 vs 1.09. Atlas: 10.3 shots per match, Cruz Azul: 17.4.
Match halves
Atlas: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.56. Cruz Azul: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 1.03.
Goals by minute
Atlas: 0-15 (8 goals). Cruz Azul: 76-90+ (20 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cruz Azul are the favorites based on seasonal superiority: 20 wins and 68 goals this season versus Atlas’s 11 wins and 40 goals. The visitors generate more high-quality chances — averaging 15.37 shots and 5.32 on target away with xG 1.66, while Atlas at home records 11.35 shots, 3.82 on target and xG 1.24. Atlas have defended resolutely recently: in their last five home matches they scored only 2 goals but conceded just 2 and average 1.6 points per match; Cruz in the same period scored 8 but conceded 5 and average 1.4 points per match. Key metrics also include finishing rates — Atlas fail to score in 29% of home games, whereas Cruz fail to score in only 11% of away fixtures, with Atlas keeping 41% clean sheets at home versus Cruz’s 21% on the road. Given the advantage in chance creation (xG 1.66 vs 1.24, 15.37 vs 11.35) and seasonal win totals (20 vs 11), I expect an away win; suggested distribution is 55% Cruz, 30% draw, 15% Atlas.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Atlas 68% and Cruz Azul 74%, while the league average is 59%, which is a strong indicator for BTTS - Yes. Atlas has a seasonal goals average of 2.05 and xG 2.07, Cruz averages 1.53 goals and xG 1.66; Atlas averages 19.42 shots and 6.58 shots on target, Cruz 15.37 shots and 5.32 on target. xG comparisons (2.07 vs 1.25 and 1.66 vs 0.93) suggest both sides have realistic scoring chances. Additionally, clean sheet and no-goal stats are 32% and 5% for Atlas versus 21% and 11% for Cruz — a No Goal outcome is relatively rare. However, in the last 5 matches Atlas has BTTS 0% and averages 0.4 goals per game, while Cruz has 100% BTTS and 1.6 goals per game, which introduces some short-term risk due to Atlas’s drop in form. Considering the seasonal 68%/74%, Atlas’s xG and shot advantage, but also the recent 5-game form, I assess BTTS at 72% 'yes' versus 28% 'no' and recommend a 'yes' pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Atlas averages 2.05 goals scored at home with xG 2.07, while Cruz Azul average 1.53 goals away with xG 1.66; their defensive xG against is 0.93 (Atlas) and 1.25 (Cruz Azul). This translates to expected goals of roughly 1.66 for Atlas and 1.30 for Cruz Azul (total 2.96), which aligns with the league average of 2.91 goals per match. This season Over 1.5 occurred in 84% of Atlas matches and 89% of Cruz Azul matches, so with combined xG=2.96 I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at about 88%. Over 2.5 appeared in 63% of Atlas games and 42% of Cruz Azul games — the mean and summed xG suggest a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (~60%), and high BTTS rates of 68%/74% further boost the likelihood of a multi-goal game. Over 3.5 is less likely (Atlas 37% vs Cruz Azul 16% → estimate ~31%), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time I expect a draw: Atlas led at the break in 7 of 19 matches (37%), and home teams were level at half in 10 of 19 (53%), while Cruz Azul were level at half in 8 of 19 (42%), yielding an averaged chance of a draw at the break of about 48%. In the second half Atlas has a clear offensive edge — seasonally they score 2.05 goals per game (xG 2.07) and register 19.42 shots per match with 6.58 on target, whereas Cruz Azul average 1.53 goals per game (xG 1.66) and 15.37 shots. Additionally, Atlas suppresses opponent expected goals (xG against 0.93 versus 1.25 for Cruz Azul) and at home they win 68% of matches, while Cruz lose only 11% of away games, which reduces the visitors’ chances of victory. Atlas often decide matches late — 12 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 8 for Cruz Azul, and the average second-half goals for the home side is 1.63 versus 1.53 for the visitors — therefore the expected full-time outcome favors the home team. Considering Atlas’s 53% HT draws and their second-half offensive advantage, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and an Atlas win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlas | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlas is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Atlas · 1.2 pts / match - Cruz Azul
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cruz Azul is 52% better for: goals scored per match.
1.18 goals / match - Atlas · 1.79 goals / match - Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Atlas · 1.11 goals / match - Cruz Azul
Atlas scores in 68% of matches (23 of 34 matches), while Cruz Azul keeps a clean sheet in 26% (10 of 38 matches).
Cruz Azul scores in 92% of matches (35 of 38 matches), while Atlas keeps a clean sheet in 29% (10 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlas
Over / Under - Cruz Azul
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cruz Azul is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.35 pts / match - Atlas · 1.5 pts / match - Cruz Azul
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cruz Azul - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlas
Cruz Azul
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Atlas | Liga | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.74 | 2.91 | • 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 56% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 24% | ▲ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 72% | ▼ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 77% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Atlas 0 - 1 - 1 Cruz Azul. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
The Liga MX match finished Atlas 2:3 Cruz Azul. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlas and Cruz Azul?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Atlas won 0, Cruz Azul won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
Atlas score 1.18 goals per game on average and Cruz Azul 1.79. The Liga MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Atlas's matches and 71% of Cruz Azul's.
What form are Atlas and Cruz Azul in?
Over the last 5 games Atlas have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Cruz Azul 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Atlas vs Cruz Azul: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.