Atlas vs Querétaro: match statistics

Atlas have the better overall season record, with 4 wins in 5 matches, while in their last five games they have won 3 times and scored 7 goals. At the same time, their home numbers are concerning: they average only 1 goal, have failed to score in 50% of matches, and allow opponents 1.98 xG while recording just 0.93 xG themselves. Querétaro have gone winless in their last five matches and scored only 2 goals during that period, which significantly limits their chances of taking all three points. However, the visitors remain unbeaten away from home, concede just 0.5 goals on average, keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, and create chances worth 1.40 xG per game. The combination of both teams’ poor finishing and Querétaro’s solid away defensive record points to a closely contested match with a high probability of a draw.

Atlas have a high seasonal BTTS rate of 67% and are yet to keep a clean sheet, which favors a Querétaro goal. However, the visitors have been significantly less effective in their last five matches, scoring just 0.4 goals per game, while they have failed to score in as many as 50% of their matches this season. Querétaro’s defense has kept a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances and concedes just 0.5 goals per game on average, while Atlas score 1.33 goals per game. Although the visitors’ xG from their last five matches stands at 1.52, their actual return is only 2 goals, indicating a finishing problem. Given Querétaro’s solid defense and the visitors’ poor current attacking efficiency, the more likely scenario is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The model expects 2.60 goals, as Atlas create chances worth an average of 1.47 xG, while Querétaro allow opponents 1.45 xG. The visitors generate 1.40 xG and 4.00 shots on target per match, whereas Atlas concede an average of as much as 1.85 xG and have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches. In their last five games, both teams conceded 1.4 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively, which favors at least two goals despite Querétaro’s lower scoring efficiency, having netted 0.4 goals during that period. The Over 1.5 line has a clear edge: Atlas went Over it in 67% of matches, while the chance-quality profile of both teams points to a higher probability of two goals than of a tight, defensive match.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Atlas win, as Querétaro were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and scored just 0.2 goals per game during that period. Atlas are nevertheless in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Querétaro have failed to win any and have lost 3. After the break, the hosts have averaged 0.8 goals across their last five appearances, while the visitors have conceded 1.2 goals in that period, which favours a turnaround after half-time. Atlas’s attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.47, while Querétaro’s defence has conceded an average of 1.6 goals over its last five matches, even though the first half should remain cautious and evenly contested.