Atlético Grau vs Melgar: match statistics

Atlético Grau have a clearly more solid defensive structure at home, conceding an average of just 0.73 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 45% of their games, while Melgar allow opponents 1.18 goals per away fixture. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, averaging 1.60 xG compared with Melgar’s 1.29 xG away from home, while registering 5.09 shots on target per match against 3.64 for the visitors. Melgar are more clinical on the road, scoring 1.45 goals per game and converting 12% of their shots, but their defence allows opponents 1.65 xG. The five-match form slightly favours the visitors, who have collected 8 points compared with Atlético Grau’s 7, although the hosts have conceded just 4 goals during that period. A closely contested, relatively low-scoring match is expected, with home advantage and Grau’s stronger defence slightly increasing the hosts’ chances of victory.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are clearly goal-friendly: Atlético Grau have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches, while Melgar have done so in 73%, compared with the league average of 56%. The hosts score an average of 2.00 goals, with an xG of 1.70 and 5.42 shots on target per match, while Melgar concede an average of 1.18 goals and keep a clean sheet in only 18% of their appearances. Melgar also have strong attacking arguments, scoring an average of 1.45 goals, while in their last five matches they averaged 1.60 goals and an xG of 1.64. Meanwhile, the current xG against Atlético Grau stands as high as 1.83. The main risk to the pick is the hosts' weaker recent run, with BTTS landing in only 20% of their last five matches and an average of 0.80 goals scored. However, their consistent season-long attacking output and the vulnerability of the visitors' defence still slightly favour goals from both teams — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

Over 1.5 goals is supported by the very high consistency of both teams: at least 2 goals were scored in 92% of Atlético Grau’s matches and 82% of Melgar’s games. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.70 xG, while Melgar allows opponents 1.65 xG, providing solid grounds for a home goal. Melgar generates an average of 1.29 xG, while Atlético Grau allows opponents 1.29 xG, so an away goal also remains a realistic scenario. The combined projection of 2.75 goals is close to the league average of 2.68, but Grau’s last five matches produced only 0.8 goals scored per game, making the Over 2.5 line significantly less reliable. The strongest edge therefore lies with Over 1.5, as even under a more cautious assessment of current form, two goals remain by far the most likely scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Melgar victory at full-time, as Atlético Grau have drawn at the break in 80% of their last five matches and have not led at half-time on any occasion. During this period, the hosts averaged just 0.2 goals before the break, while Melgar scored an average of 1.0 and remained unbeaten at half-time in all five matches. After the interval, however, Melgar have a significantly weaker seasonal record, losing the second half in 55% of matches, so the risk of a full-time draw remains considerable. The visitors’ current-form advantage is also evident in their full-match results: they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Grau average just 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Although the hosts have won 58% of their matches over the entire season, compared with Melgar’s 36%, the more recent data and the visitors’ superior first-half efficiency support the X/2 outcome.