Atlético JBG vs Cumbayá: match statistics

Atlético JBG sit 3rd, while Cumbayá are seventh, and the hosts have won 60% of their home matches, with just 10% ending in defeat. At home, Atlético average 1.3 goals scored and concede only 0.4, keeping a clean sheet in 60% of matches, whereas Cumbayá score just 0.7 goals per away game. The visitors have a higher average xG—1.25 compared with the hosts’ 0.91—but have failed to convert it into goals: they convert only 8% of their shots and have failed to score in 50% of away fixtures. Atlético have also been more solid across their last five matches, collecting 8 points and conceding just 2 goals, while Cumbayá drew all five of their games and scored only 3 goals in total. The low goal count and the visitors’ high draw rate increase the likelihood of a tight contest, but the hosts’ defensive advantage and strong home record point to an Atlético JBG victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: in their last five matches, both teams saw this scenario in only 20% of games, averaging 1.0 and 0.6 goals scored respectively. Atlético JBG conceded just 0.4 goals per match during this period, while Cumbayá scored only 3 goals in five appearances, limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Cumbayá failed to score in 50% of their matches this season and also kept a clean sheet in 50%, while the hosts have recorded clean sheets in 36% of their games. The competition is also low-scoring, averaging 1.86 goals with BTTS at 36%, while Cumbayá’s season BTTS rate stands at just 30%. Although the visitors create an average xG of 1.25, their low 8% shot conversion rate and current run of five draws point towards a match in which at least one side will fail to score.

The league profile is clearly low-scoring: the average is just 1.86 goals per match, and only 31% of games go Over 2.5 goals. Cumbayá concede an average of 0.70 goals and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while Atlético JBG have allowed opponents just 0.40 goals per game across their last five appearances. Both teams have recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of their last five matches, with a combined tally of 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. The signal for Under 3.5 goals is particularly strong, as this line has not been exceeded in 73% of Atlético JBG matches and 100% of Cumbayá fixtures. The projected total of 1.66 goals, despite the visitors’ moderate xG of 1.25, strongly supports the Under 3.5 goals selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Cumbayá have drawn all of their last five matches, while Atlético JBG have recorded draws in as many as 64% of their matches this season. Both teams are particularly cautious before the break: in their last five games, each side was level at half-time 80% of the time, with an average of only 0.6 goals scored in the first half. Cumbayá average just 0.22 goals before the break and failed to score in the first half in 89% of their matches, limiting the visitors’ chances of taking the lead at the break. Atlético JBG do have an advantage in first-half performance, averaging 0.82 goals scored compared with their opponents’ 0.22, but they are currently scoring only 0.4 goals before half-time. Few decisive chances should also be expected after the break, as in their last five appearances the hosts conceded an average of 0.2 goals, while the visitors conceded 0.4 goals in the second half.