Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia: match statistics
Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Mineiro play Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 22 July 2026 at 00:30. Venue: Arena MRV. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Atlético Mineiro: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Bahia: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Mineiro scores 1.21 and concedes 1.26 goals per match. Bahia scores 1.47 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Mineiro 42%, Bahia 68%. Over 2.5: Atlético Mineiro 42%, Bahia 53%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Bahia has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.45. Atlético Mineiro: 13.6 shots per match, Bahia: 14.5.
Match halves
Atlético Mineiro: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.53. Bahia: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Atlético Mineiro: 16-30 (5 goals). Bahia: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Match description
Atlético Mineiro holds a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they have won 4 of 5, scoring 7 and conceding only 2, which translates to an average of 2.4 points per game; Bahia in the same period has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 7 with an average of 1.4 points. Offensively the hosts are more productive at home: Atlético averages 1.63 goals per game with 14.5 shots overall and 5 shots on target and xG 1.53, while Bahia away averages 1.38 goals, 12.13 shots, 4.38 on target and xG 1.38. Defensively the numbers also favor Atlético — average xG against at home is 1.51 and they concede 1.5 goals per match on average, whereas Bahia on the road concedes 1.63 goals with xG against 1.88 and has a negative away goal difference of -2. Considering the better points return in the last 5 matches (2.4 vs 1.4), fewer goals conceded in that period (2 vs 7) and higher xG and shot volume for the hosts, I forecast an Atlético win; I propose probability distribution 60% home, 25% draw and 15% away.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Mineiro | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bahia is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - Atlético Mineiro · 1.47 goals / match - Bahia
Atlético Mineiro scores in 63% of matches (12 of 19 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
Bahia scores in 95% of matches (18 of 19 matches), while Atlético Mineiro keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Atlético Mineiro
Over / Under — Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Mineiro is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / match - Atlético Mineiro · 1.32 pts / match - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Mineiro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Mineiro | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.47 | 2.65 | • 2.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 59% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 23% | ▲ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 77% | ▲ 95% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 78% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Atlético Mineiro 1 - 0 - 1 Bahia. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished Atlético Mineiro 1:1 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Atlético Mineiro won 1, Bahia won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia?
Atlético Mineiro score 1.21 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.47. The Serie A average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Atlético Mineiro's matches and 68% of Bahia's.
What form are Atlético Mineiro and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Mineiro have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Bahia 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia?
The statistical background for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.