Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC: match statistics

Atlético Ottawa are clear favorites thanks to their highly solid home performances: they win 70% of their matches, score an average of 2.1 goals, and lose only 10% of the time. Pacific FC have not won a single away match, lose 63% of their games, and concede as many as 2.38 goals per match, while keeping no clean sheets. The hosts create more high-quality chances, as confirmed by their xG of 1.57 compared with the visitors’ 1.13, and they also average 5.4 shots on target versus Pacific’s 3.38. Recent form also favors Ottawa, who have scored 12 goals and earned 10 points in their last five matches, while Pacific have scored 7 goals and collected 5 points. The visitors could find the net, as Ottawa concede an average of 1.3 goals at home, but the hosts’ attacking advantage and Pacific’s defensive weaknesses point to an Ottawa victory.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 80% of Atlético Ottawa matches and 75% of Pacific FC games, compared with the league average of 63%. Neither team has kept a single clean sheet, while they failed to score in only 20% of the home side’s matches and 25% of the away side’s games. In their last five appearances, BTTS landed 80% of the time for both teams, with Ottawa averaging 2.4 goals scored and Pacific FC 1.4. Ottawa averages 13.6 shots and 4.4 shots on target per match, while Pacific recorded an xG of 1.78 across their last five games, strengthening the prospects of an away goal. The defenses regularly allow opponents chances, conceding 2.00 goals per game at home and 2.38 away over the season. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes scenario is more likely.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Atlético Ottawa have surpassed this line in 80% of their matches this season, while Pacific FC have done so in all of their matches to date. Neither team has kept a single clean sheet, and both have conceded at least one goal in 100% of their appearances, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a 0:0 or 1:0 result. The hosts average 1.62 xG and 4.4 shots on target per match, while Pacific’s defence concedes an average of 2.38 goals and 1.66 xG. Over the last five rounds, Ottawa have scored 12 goals—2.4 per match—and both teams have seen both sides score in 80% of their matches. The projected total of 3.20 goals also supports Over 2.5, but Over 1.5 remains clearly the safer and most likely option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Atlético Ottawa win after the final whistle, as matches involving both teams are typically more cautious before the break: the hosts average 0.33 goals in that period, while Pacific concede just 0.38. Pacific nevertheless have the better starts, leading at the break in 50% of their matches compared with Ottawa’s 22%, which reduces confidence in a straightforward 1/1 outcome. After the interval, the form advantage clearly shifts towards the hosts: across their last five matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals in the second half, compared with just 0.75 for the visitors, who have conceded 1.5. Ottawa have won 60% of their last five matches, record an xG of 1.62 compared with Pacific’s 1.13, and average 4.4 shots on target to their opponents’ 3.38. Neither team has kept a clean sheet all season, while the average of 2.44–2.50 goals after half-time favours the hosts deciding the match only in the closing stages.