Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

Atlético Ottawa average 1.33 goals scored and concede only 0.67 goals per home match, with average xG for 1.34 and xG against 1.23, 0% matches without scoring and a 67% home win rate, indicating a solid defence and quality of chances. Supra du Québec away also average 1.33 goals scored but concede 1.33 per match, have lower xG for 0.96 and higher xG against 1.55, plus 33% of away matches without a goal and 0% clean sheets, which points to greater issues in attack and defence on the road. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts have scored 9 goals and hold a 3-1-1 record, averaging 2.0 points per game, while the visitors scored 8 goals with a 2-2-1 record and 1.6 points per game. Additionally Ottawa controls 63% possession on average versus Supra’s 50% and generates 11.33 shots per match with 3.67 on target; although the visitors have a marginally better conversion 13% vs 12%, their 33% of matches without a goal weakens their efficiency. Considering the superior xG (1.34 vs 0.96), lower average goals conceded (0.67 vs 1.33) and stronger form (2.0 vs 1.6 pts), I predict a home win.

Both teams have high BTTS indicators: Atlético Ottawa 60% this season and Supra du Québec 67%, and in the last 5 matches both sides record BTTS at 80%. Both teams have 0% clean sheets this season, so neither home nor away have kept a clean sheet yet. Seasonally Atlético scores on average 1.2 and concedes 1.0, Supra scores 1.33 and concedes 1.33; in the last 5 matches the hosts have 9 scored and 6 conceded, and the visitors 8 scored and 5 conceded, which confirms regular goal exchanges. xG and shot data show Atlético generates more chances (xG 1.85, 17 shots and 5.0 on target) against Supra’s defense with xG against 1.55, while Supra has xG 0.96 with 10.67 shots and 13% accuracy, so both sides have realistic scoring opportunities. Considering the league average BTTS 54% and clear signals from the data (60% vs 67% seasonally and 80% in the last 5), I predict BTTS - Yes with probability 80% versus 20% for No.

xG analysis shows Atlético Ottawa has an xG of 1.85 per match while Supra du Québec is at 0.96; additionally, Supra’s opponents generate 1.55 xG against them versus 0.91 xG against Ottawa. Averaging these values yields a projection of 1.70 expected goals for Ottawa and 0.94 for Supra, totaling 2.64 expected goals. Ottawa averages 17 shots and 5.0 on target per match compared to Supra’s 10.67 and 4.33, with conversion rates of 7% versus 13%, indicating Ottawa creates more chances while Supra is more efficient. Season-long indicators confirm goal risk: Over 1.5 occurs in 60% of Ottawa’s matches and 67% of Supra’s, and BTTS stands at 60% and 67%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation).

First-half analysis indicates a draw at the break: the home side were level at half-time in 80% of matches, the visitors in 67%, with average half-time goals 0.2 (home) vs 0.33 (away) and the visitors conceding on average 0.0 goals before the break, which increases the probability of an HT draw. After the break Atlético Ottawa should gain the advantage — their xG is 1.85 versus the visitors’ 0.96, they average 17.0 shots per match vs 10.67 and 5.0 shots on target vs 4.33, indicating greater offensive pressure. This translates into better second-half outcomes: the home team collected 9 points in second halves compared to 2 for the visitors and average 1.8 points per match after the break vs 0.67 for the opponents, favoring a turnaround. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with the home team winning at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 45% probability, 20% to a full-time draw (X/X), with remaining combinations allocated lower probabilities; additionally the last 5 matches show 60% home wins vs 40% away wins, which reinforces the expectation of a second-half victory.