Atlético PR vs Fluminense: match statistics

Atlético PR have a clear home advantage, winning 67% of their matches there, scoring an average of 1.67 goals and conceding just 0.58, while Fluminense win only 18% of their away fixtures. The hosts also create better chances, averaging 1.55 xG with 0.99 xG conceded, whereas the visitors have an unfavorable away profile of 1.42 xG for and 1.65 against. Atlético average 14.17 shots and 5.42 on target per home match, outperforming Fluminense’s 12.45 shots and 4.45 on target on the road. Both teams have been solid recently, with Atlético collecting 10 points from five matches, while Fluminense remain unbeaten in this run with 2 wins and 3 draws. However, the visitors’ away defense concedes an average of 1.36 goals. A controlled home win is therefore the most likely outcome, although Fluminense’s high 45% away draw rate increases the chances of a share of the points.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are very high on both sides: Atlético PR record BTTS in 77% of matches, while Fluminense do so in 73%, well above the league average of 57%. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals and create 2.05 xG, whereas Fluminense, despite a lower average of 1.18 goals, have 1.42 xG and have scored in 4 of their last 5 BTTS matches. Atlético PR have kept a clean sheet in only 23% of matches, while Fluminense have done so in just 9%, significantly strengthening the likelihood that both teams will find the net. In their last five outings, the hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals while allowing opponents 1.79 xG, and the visitors generated 1.75 xG, giving Fluminense solid grounds to score. The BTTS - Yes scenario is more likely, although Atlético PR’s weaker 40% BTTS rate across their last five matches slightly reduces confidence.

Atlético PR score an average of 1.77 goals at home and create chances worth 2.05 xG, while Fluminense concede an average of 1.36 goals away from home, with 1.65 xG allowed to opponents. The hosts record as many as 18.0 shots per match, including 6.92 on target, clearly exceeding Fluminense’s 12.45 attempts and 4.45 shots on target. The 1.5 line was covered in 77% of Atlético PR’s matches and 91% of Fluminense’s, so both profiles strongly support at least two goals. The last five matches for both teams produced at least three goals in 40% of games, limiting confidence in Over 2.5 despite a projected total of 3.00 goals. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as it combines the high consistency of both teams with the hosts’ attacking advantage and the visitors’ vulnerable defense.

Atlético PR are significantly stronger over the course of the season: at home, they win 69% of their matches and average 2.31 points, while Fluminense win just 18% of their away fixtures and average 1.00 point. The hosts create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 2.05 compared with the opponents’ 1.42, as well as an average of 6.92 shots on target per match versus Fluminense’s 4.45. Atlético’s advantage is already evident before half-time: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break on 60% of occasions and scored an average of 1.0 goal, whereas the visitors did not lead at half-time even once and scored just 0.2 goals on average. After the interval, the hosts continue to show a solid profile, averaging 1.08 goals scored, while Fluminense concede an average of 1.36 goals away from home across entire matches. The HT/FT scenario of Atlético PR leading at the break and holding on for the win is therefore the strongest-supported outcome, backed by both the quality gap and the teams’ current first-half form.