Atlético Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro: match statistics
Atlético Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Rafaela played Gimnasia y Tiro in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Atlético Rafaela: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Gimnasia y Tiro: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Rafaela scores 1.00 and concedes 0.73 goals per match. Gimnasia y Tiro scores 1.09 and concedes 1.36. League average: 1.88 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Rafaela 45%, Gimnasia y Tiro 64%. Over 2.5: Atlético Rafaela 36%, Gimnasia y Tiro 45%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
Gimnasia y Tiro has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.18. Atlético Rafaela: 9.2 shots per match, Gimnasia y Tiro: 11.0.
Match halves
Atlético Rafaela: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.64. Gimnasia y Tiro: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.18.
Goals by minute
Atlético Rafaela: 46-60 (3 goals). Gimnasia y Tiro: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.88 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlético Rafaela has a clear defensive edge at home: the hosts concede on average 0.5 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 67% of home games, while Gimnasia y Tiro concedes 2.0 goals on average away and has recorded no clean sheets. This season Atlético Rafaela scored 11 goals, 6 of them in the last 5 matches, and their record is 4-4-3. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts are 1-2-2, averaging 1.0 point per match, whereas Gimnasia y Tiro have scored 4 goals, remain winless (0-2-3) and average 0.4 points per match. In attack both teams have similar xG (1.25 for the hosts vs 1.34 for the visitors), but Atlético converts better (13% conversion with 9.17 shots and 3.83 on target) than the visitors (9% conversion with 11.5 shots and 4.0 on target). Considering the visitors’ weaker away defense (2.0 goals conceded on average, 75% away loss rate), I give the hosts higher chances: 60% for an Atlético Rafaela win, 25% for a draw and 15% for a visitors’ win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show a strong BTTS trend: Atlético Rafaela has 57% matches with both teams scoring, and Gimnasia y Tiro 75%, while in the last 5 meetings both sides have 60% each, which gives a clear signal for Goal/Goal. Gimnasia y Tiro concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match this season and has 0% clean sheets, while Atlético Rafaela scores 1.14 and concedes 1.0, so the hosts are also vulnerable to conceding. xG confirms the presence of chances: Atlético Rafaela has an offensive xG of 1.39 versus xG against 1.44, and Gimnasia’s offensive xG is 1.34 with xG against 1.18, suggesting realistic opportunities on both sides. Additionally, the visitors register more shots on target (4.0 vs 3.29) and have a high percentage of matches over 2.5 goals 75% versus the hosts’ 29%, which increases the likelihood of strikes from both teams. On that basis I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% (No 30%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The symmetric model (average of attack and defense) calculates expected goals as (xG_for_home 1.39 + xG_against_away 1.44)/2 = 1.42 for Atlético Rafaela and (xG_for_away 1.34 + xG_against_home 1.18)/2 = 1.26 for Gimnasia y Tiro, totaling 2.68 goals. This season 71% of Rafaela’s matches and 100% of Gimnasia y Tiro’s matches exceeded the 1.5 goals line (average 86%), which provides a very strong signal for Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is less certain: seasonally 29% of home teams and 75% of away teams finished above 2.5 (average 52%), and in Rafaela’s last 5 matches they had 60% Over 2.5 versus 40% for the away side — therefore Over 2.5 is only moderately likely. Additionally, BTTS is 57% for the home team and 75% for the away team; the away side have 0% clean sheets and have conceded 15 goals this season, which increases the probability of at least one goal from both sides. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (Over 86%), while Over 2.5 has a weaker indication (52%) and Over 3.5 is unlikely (19%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Atlético Rafaela led at the break in 4 matches this season (57%), while Gimnasia y Tiro led at the break in only 1 match (25%), clearly favoring the home side to have the lead at Half-Time. The hosts average 1.0 goals by Half-Time and concede 0.43, while the visitors average 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded by Half-Time; additionally Atlético scored 5 goals in minutes 31–45 versus 3 for the opponents, so there is a high probability of a home goal before the break. Over the full match Atlético averages 1.14 goals and 1.0 conceded and 1.29 points per game, whereas Gimnasia averages 1.0 scored and as many as 2.0 conceded with only 0.75 points per game, which supports maintaining the home advantage. Although both teams have high BTTS rates (hosts 57%, visitors 75%), the HT statistics (clean sheet at Half-Time for the hosts 57%) suggest a 1-0 lead and a home win. Therefore I assign 36% to HT/FT 1/1 as the most likely outcome, with alternatives X/1 (13%) and X/X (10%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Rafaela | Gimnasia y Tiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Rafaela is 150% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Atlético Rafaela · 0.4 pts / match - Gimnasia y Tiro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gimnasia y Tiro is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Atlético Rafaela · 1.09 goals / match - Gimnasia y Tiro
Atlético Rafaela is 86% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.73 goals / match - Atlético Rafaela · 1.36 goals / match - Gimnasia y Tiro
Atlético Rafaela scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Gimnasia y Tiro keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
Gimnasia y Tiro scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Atlético Rafaela keeps a clean sheet in 55% (6 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Rafaela
Over / Under - Gimnasia y Tiro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gimnasia y Tiro is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / match - Atlético Rafaela · 1.64 pts / match - Gimnasia y Tiro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Rafaela - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Gimnasia y Tiro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Rafaela
Gimnasia y Tiro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Rafaela | Liga | Gimnasia y Tiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.73 | 1.88 | ▲ 2.45 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 45% | 40% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 36% | 30% | ▲ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 55% | 39% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 59% | ▲ 91% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 70% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Atlético Rafaela 1:0 Gimnasia y Tiro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro?
Atlético Rafaela score 1.00 goals per game on average and Gimnasia y Tiro 1.09. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.88 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Atlético Rafaela's matches and 64% of Gimnasia y Tiro's.
What form are Atlético Rafaela and Gimnasia y Tiro in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Rafaela have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Gimnasia y Tiro 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro?
The statistical background for Atlético Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.