Atlético Tembetary vs Paraguarí: match statistics

Paraguarí head into this match in excellent form, having won all 5 of their last games, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 6. Over the same period, Atlético Tembetary scored 7 goals, conceded 10 and collected only 4 points from 1 win and 1 draw. The hosts hold a slight edge in home statistics, averaging 1.33 goals with an xG of 1.39, although their defence concedes an average of 1.58 goals and has kept a clean sheet in just 8% of matches. Away from home, the visitors create slightly better-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.43 compared with their opponents’ 1.39, and they also register more shots on target per match: 4.25 compared with 3.5. Paraguarí’s weaker away record, with wins in 25% of matches and defeats in 50%, reduces confidence in the pick; however, their current five-match winning streak clearly points towards a Paraguarí victory.

The signal for both sides to score is clear based on their current form: both Atlético Tembetary and Paraguarí recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, compared with 54% and 58% respectively across the season. In those matches, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.0, while Paraguarí produced a very strong 2.6 goals per game and conceded 1.2. Paraguarí also creates more shots on target over the season, averaging 4.25 compared with the opponent’s 3.31, while its average xG stands at 1.43; Atlético has a comparable 1.32 xG. The defences offer little guarantee of a clean sheet, with the hosts keeping a clean sheet in only 23% of matches and the visitors in 17%. The risk behind a BTTS - No selection is that Paraguarí failed to score in 33% of its season matches, but its current run of five consecutive wins and 13 goals scored in its last 5 appearances provides stronger support for the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The match profile points to a clear chance of at least two goals: the hosts score an average of 1.46 goals, while Paraguarí concede as many as 1.67 goals per away game. The visitors have been highly offensive recently, scoring 13 goals in their last five matches, or 2.6 per game, while Atlético Tembetary conceded 10 goals over the same period. The 1.5 line has been covered in 62% of the hosts’ matches and 75% of the visitors’ games, while both teams regularly allow opponents chances worth 1.33 and 1.44 xG, respectively. Recent form further supports a goals-based scenario, as Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% and 80% of the teams’ respective last five matches. Over 1.5 offers the greatest edge, as the forecast of 2.95 goals provides a substantial margin of safety even with lower finishing efficiency than in recent rounds.

Paraguarí arrive in excellent form, having won all of their last five matches, while Atlético Tembetary have collected just four points over the same period and lost three games. The visitors have been particularly strong in the opening stages: in their last five league fixtures, they held a lead at the break in 60% of matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. After the break, the current form advantage is equally clear, with Paraguarí averaging 1.6 goals scored and Tembetary conceding 1.6, while the hosts have lost 60% of their second halves. Although the hosts boast the better overall home record this season, with a 54% win rate and an average of 1.46 goals scored, the visitors’ five-match winning streak and greater efficiency in both halves most strongly support an HT/FT 1/1 scenario, with Paraguarí leading at half-time and securing the win.