Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia: match statistics
Morelia presents decidedly better form than Atlético Zacatepec, confirmed by the points-per-match record in the last 5 games (1.8 vs 1.2). The hosts have dramatic home statistics – 0% wins at home, 57% losses, and not a single clean sheet all season. Morelia has shown solidity in recent matches (undefeated streak: WDDDW) and better scoring efficiency (11% vs 9% shot conversion). The goal difference (-7 for the hosts, -5 for the guests) and possession advantage (49% vs 45%) further speak in favor of Morelia. Taking all statistical data into account, a victory for the visitors is the most probable scenario, although a draw remains a realistic option due to Morelia's tendency to split points away from home (44% draws).
Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Zacatepec played Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 17 January 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Atlético Zacatepec: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Morelia: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Zacatepec scores 1.14 and concedes 1.79 goals per match. Morelia scores 1.42 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.99 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Zacatepec 64%, Morelia 47%. Over 2.5: Atlético Zacatepec 50%, Morelia 58%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Morelia has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.37. Atlético Zacatepec: 11.9 shots per match, Morelia: 14.1.
Match halves
Atlético Zacatepec: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.64. Morelia: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Atlético Zacatepec: 61-75 (5 goals). Morelia: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.99 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia presents decidedly better form than Atlético Zacatepec, confirmed by the points-per-match record in the last 5 games (1.8 vs 1.2). The hosts have dramatic home statistics – 0% wins at home, 57% losses, and not a single clean sheet all season. Morelia has shown solidity in recent matches (undefeated streak: WDDDW) and better scoring efficiency (11% vs 9% shot conversion). The goal difference (-7 for the hosts, -5 for the guests) and possession advantage (49% vs 45%) further speak in favor of Morelia. Taking all statistical data into account, a victory for the visitors is the most probable scenario, although a draw remains a realistic option due to Morelia's tendency to split points away from home (44% draws).
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Zacatepec | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.8 pts / match - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.42 goals / match - Morelia
Morelia is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.79 goals / match - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.26 goals / match - Morelia
Atlético Zacatepec scores in 79% of matches (11 of 14 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 matches).
Morelia scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Atlético Zacatepec keeps a clean sheet in 14% (2 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Zacatepec
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.07 pts / match - Atlético Zacatepec · 1.58 pts / match - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Zacatepec - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Zacatepec
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Zacatepec | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.93 | 2.99 | ▼ 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 57% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 25% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 77% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Atlético Zacatepec 0 - 0 - 1 Morelia. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Atlético Zacatepec 0:3 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia?
Atlético Zacatepec score 1.14 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.42. The Ascenso MX average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Atlético Zacatepec's matches and 47% of Morelia's.
What form are Atlético Zacatepec and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Zacatepec have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Morelia 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Atlético Zacatepec vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.