Atlético Zacatepec vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics

Atlético Zacatepec have a slightly better record over their last five matches: they have recorded 2 wins and scored 6 goals, while Tepatitlán have won just once and conceded as many as 14 goals. The hosts lost their only home game, but created chances worth 1.93 xG and enjoyed 65% possession, indicating greater attacking potential than their tally of zero goals suggests. Tepatitlán concede an average of 3 goals per away match, with opponents recording 1.77 xG, and have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any game. However, the visitors are capable of generating 1.78 xG and average 7 shots on target, making a goal from them likely. Zacatepec’s slight edge comes from a clearly more stable defence, allowing just 0.86 xG to opponents at home.

The BTTS - Yes pick is slightly supported by the very weak defensive performances of both teams: the hosts concede an average of 3.0 goals, while the visitors also concede 3.0 goals per match, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Tepatitlán have had BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, whereas Atlético Zacatepec have yet to score, which significantly lowers confidence in the pick. However, the hosts’ current attacking form provides grounds for a breakthrough, as they have averaged 1.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches with an xG of 1.62, while their opponents conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game during this period. The visitors create plenty of chances, averaging 15.0 shots and 7.0 shots on target, while their season xG stands at 1.78, so they should exploit the vulnerability of the hosts’ defence. BTTS rates of 40% and 60% over the last five matches do not provide a strong consensus, but the combination of the hosts’ attack and Tepatitlán’s leaky defence marginally favours goals from both sides.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as both teams have gone Over 2.5 goals in 60% and 80% of their respective last five matches. Atlético Zacatepec conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match during this period, while Tepatitlán conceded as many as 2.8, clearly increasing the opponents’ scoring potential. The quality-of-chances data also points to an open game: the hosts’ average xG is 1.62 and the visitors’ 1.43, while the league average is a high 3.04 goals. Tepatitlán averages 7 shots on target and 15 attempts per match, and the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet, which is why Over 1.5 has a clearer edge than the more demanding 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches, while each averaged just 0.4 goals before the break during that period. Tepatitlán hold the edge in chance creation, averaging 15 shots and 7 on target compared with the hosts’ 9.5 and 2, respectively, while their xG stands at 1.78 versus Atlético’s 1.20. Therefore, an away lead at the break also remains a realistic scenario. After half-time, however, Zacatepec’s form offers the stronger signal: across their last five matches, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals scored, conceded just 0.6, and won the second half in 60% of cases. Over the same period, the visitors conceded an average of 2.0 goals, lost 80% of second halves, and allowed as many as 2.8 goals per match across their last five fixtures, which favours a turnaround from a half-time draw to a home win at full-time.