Aubagne vs Bastia: match statistics

Both teams have collected 4 points from their last five matches, recording 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses apiece, so the gap between them is narrow. Aubagne scored 7 goals during this period but conceded 10, while Bastia netted 6 and allowed 11. The hosts lost their only home match so far 0:3, failed to score and recorded an average xG of just 0.71, compared with the 1.85 xG allowed to opponents. Bastia also opened the season with a defeat, but lost 0:2 and sit higher in the table, which, combined with Aubagne’s very poor finishing, gives the visitors a slight edge. A draw remains a realistic outcome given the teams’ similar current form.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: Aubagne recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Bastia did so in 40%. The hosts scored 1.4 goals per game during this period and conceded 2.0, whereas the visitors scored 1.2 goals but allowed their opponents 2.2. Both teams have a similar attacking potential in terms of xG, standing at 1.04 for Aubagne and 1.23 for Bastia. Both defences remain vulnerable, as confirmed by the 10 goals conceded by the hosts and 11 by the visitors in their last five matches. Although the overall league BTTS rate is only 22%, the current results of both teams provide a slightly stronger signal for the outcome in which each side scores at least one goal.

Data from the last five matches points to open games involving both teams: Aubagne scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 2.0, while Bastia scored 1.2 and allowed opponents to score 2.2 goals. Combined, this amounts to 13 goals scored and as many as 21 conceded by both teams across their last ten appearances. Aubagne had at least three goals in the match in 80% of their last five games, while both sides exceeded the league average of 2.44 goals per game over this period in terms of goals conceded. The quality-of-chances metrics are more moderate but still support a projection of around 2.8 goals, as the teams’ average xG figures stand at 1.04 and 1.23. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the weak defensive records on both sides clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals, with lower risk than on higher lines.

Aubagne have a clearly stronger first-half profile over their last five matches: they have averaged 1.00 goal before the break, compared with just 0.25 for Bastia, while the hosts led at half-time in 40% of those games. Bastia were trailing at the break in 75% of their recent matches and conceded an average of 1.25 goals in the first half, supporting the Aubagne lead at half-time scenario. After the interval, however, the pattern reverses, with Aubagne scoring just 0.40 goals and conceding 1.20 per match, whereas Bastia average 0.75 goals scored in the second half. Both teams have won only 20% of their last five matches, but the hosts’ fragile defence, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game, increases the likelihood of a Bastia turnaround and a full-time victory.