Aubagne vs Châteauroux: match statistics

The favorites in this matchup are the visitors (Châteauroux). Away they average 1.17 goals scored and concede 1.08, while Aubagne at home score 1.08 and concede 1.50 per match. Recent form diverges significantly: Aubagne have only 1 point from their last five (0.2 pts per match) with a goal record of 3–11, whereas Châteauroux collected 6 points (1.2 pts per match) with a 5–6 goal record. The hosts hold an edge in possession (56% vs 52%), take more shots and shots on target (9.5 and 3.58 vs 8.42 and 3.0) and have higher home xG (xG 1.26 vs xG 1.09 for the visitors), but the visitors convert chances more efficiently (14% conversion vs 11%). Châteauroux’s decisive advantage is defensive solidity and clean sheet rate: the visitors concede only 1.08 goals away on average and keep 25% clean sheets, while Aubagne concede 1.50 at home and have just 8% clean sheets. Considering superior points in the last 5 matches, higher efficiency with fewer shots and clear defensive issues for the hosts, I predict an away win for Châteauroux; estimated probabilities: Châteauroux 45%, draw 30%, Aubagne 25%.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 46% (Aubagne) and 58% (Châteauroux), versus a league average of 54%, which already slightly favors a BTTS - Yes scenario. From xG: estimated expected goals are ~1.36 for the home side (xG_for 1.33 and opponent xG_against 1.39) and ~1.18 for the visitors (xG_for 1.09 and home xG_against 1.26); the probability of scoring at least one goal is ~74.4% for the home team and ~69.1% for the visitors, yielding a multiplicative BTTS probability of ~51.4%. In the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded on average 2.2 goals per game, while the visitors have conceded 1.2 and scored on average 1.0, which increases the risk of both teams scoring. Additionally the visitors have a higher seasonal shot conversion (14% vs 8%) with a similar number of shots on target (3.0 vs 3.23), therefore overall I assign a moderate edge to the "Yes" scenario (56% vs 44%).

xG analysis gives 1.36 for Aubagne and 1.18 for Châteauroux, totalling 2.54 expected goals — above the league average of 2.38 and close to the 2.5 threshold. Season stats show Aubagne’s matches finished over 1.5 goals in 62% of cases and Châteauroux in 75%, averaging about 69%; considering xG and recent form I increase the probability of Over 1.5 to 75%. For the 2.5 line season >2.5 is 54% (Aubagne) and 50% (Châteauroux) — average 52% — but the home side’s last 5 matches are 80% Over 2.5 and Aubagne conceded 11 goals in those 5 fixtures (2.2 per game), which boosts the chance of more goals. Additionally BTTS occurs in 46% of Aubagne games and 58% of Châteauroux games, and shot stats (11.15 vs 8.42) plus xG-against 1.26/1.39 indicate both teams have realistic potential to score and concede. As a result the strongest and most confident signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation), while Over 2.5 has moderate support (~56%) due to xG 2.54 and Aubagne’s recent defensive frailties; Over 3.5 remains unlikely (~29%).

I project a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome of draw at the break and a Châteauroux win (X/2) as the most likely scenario (28%). Aubagne led at the break in 15% of matches, were level at halftime in 62% and trailing in 23%, so a draw HT is the dominant halftime result. Châteauroux show superior efficiency and form: 1.25 points per game versus the home side’s 0.77 and a higher shot conversion rate of 14% versus 8%, despite the home side having an xG of 1.33 against the visitors’ 1.09. In the second half the visitors hold the edge — hosts concede on average 0.92 goals in second halves versus 0.67 conceded by the visitors, and the hosts have conceded 7 goals in minutes 76–90 compared with 4 conceded by Châteauroux. Additionally, the home side’s second halves frequently produce goals (85% of matches with >0.5 goals), which increases the probability of a turnaround after the break and makes the X/2 signal the strongest.