Aubagne vs Thionville Lusitanos: match statistics

Aubagne sit 2nd in the table, while Thionville Lusitanos are only 15th, which clearly strengthens the case for the home side. Both teams have collected 4 points from their last 5 matches, recording 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses each, so current form does not give either side a significant advantage. Aubagne have scored 8 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, while conceding 10 compared with Thionville’s 14. Thionville concede an average of 2.8 goals per match across their last five fixtures, and with Aubagne scoring 1.6 goals per game, this suggests that the hosts should create more chances to decide the match. The poor defensive records of both teams increase the risk of a draw, but the gap in league position and the more favourable goal difference point towards an Aubagne win.

The latest form clearly points towards goals at both ends: Aubagne had BTTS - Yes in 5 of their last 5 matches, while Thionville Lusitanos did so in 3 of 5. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game, significantly increasing Aubagne’s chances of finding the net. Thionville averaged 1.2 goals scored, and Aubagne’s defense conceded an average of 2.0 goals, meaning the visitors also have favorable conditions to respond. The visitors’ lower xG of 0.82 compared with Aubagne’s 1.05 slightly reduces confidence in their goal, but the high number of goals conceded by both teams supports a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Aubagne’s last five matches produced an average of 3.6 goals, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.0 goals per game. Thionville Lusitanos have an even more open profile: they averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.8, resulting in 4.0 total goals per match. The 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% of Aubagne’s last five matches and in all five of Thionville’s games. At the same time, the overall chance quality is moderate, as the teams’ average attacking xG stands at 1.05 and 0.82, respectively, giving Over 2.5 only a slight edge. The strongest signal is Over 1.5: the visitors’ weaker defence and the 18 goals conceded by both teams in their last five matches clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

Aubagne have the clearer potential to make the better start: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.2 goals scored before half-time, compared with just 0.6 for Thionville. The hosts were leading at the break in 40% of those matches, while the visitors did so in 40% as well; however, Thionville ended this period with a -2 goal difference, compared with +1 for Aubagne. The strongest argument for a home win in the full match is the visitors’ defensive record, as they conceded an average of 2.8 goals in their last five appearances, compared with 2.0 goals conceded by Aubagne. After the interval, Thionville allowed their opponents to score an average of 1.8 goals, while Aubagne conceded only 1.0, increasing the hosts’ chances of maintaining or extending their lead. Both teams won just 20% of their last five matches, so the 1/1 scenario is not dominant, but it has the strongest foundation in Aubagne’s first-half advantage and the visitors’ defensive weakness.