Audax Italiano vs Unión La Calera: match statistics

Audax Italiano come into this match in clearly better form: they have collected 8 points from their last five games, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and just one defeat, while Unión La Calera have managed 4 points. At home, the hosts average 1.8 goals per match, whereas the visitors score just 0.56 away from home and fail to find the net in as many as 56% of such games. Audax also create more chances, averaging 12.1 shots and 3.7 shots on target per match, compared with La Calera’s 9.22 shots and 2.67 on target. The visitors’ defence concedes 2.0 goals per away game and allows opponents an average xG of 1.65, which further supports the hosts’ advantage. Unión La Calera have lost 67% of their away matches, so home advantage and Audax Italiano’s greater consistency point towards a home win.

Audax Italiano should create good opportunities to score, as they average 1.60 goals at home, while Unión La Calera concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match. However, the key argument against BTTS - Yes is the visitors’ attacking output: they score only 0.56 goals per game away from home and failed to find the net in 56% of their away fixtures. La Calera’s seasonal BTTS rate is just 33%, clearly below Audax’s 70% and the league average of 52%. The visitors’ last five matches show some improvement, as they averaged 1.4 goals and BTTS landed in 60% of those games, but they also conceded 1.8 goals per match, which lends greater support to a home win to nil scenario. Therefore, the BTTS - No pick is not based on a high probability of an Audax clean sheet, but primarily on the significant risk that the inefficient La Calera will once again fail to score.

Audax Italiano score an average of 1.60 goals at home, while Unión La Calera concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match, clearly supporting the hosts’ scoring output. Although the visitors have a low away average of 0.56 goals scored, their last five matches produced an average of 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded. The underlying chance creation also points to an open game: the hosts’ average xG stands at 1.28, compared with 1.65 xG conceded by La Calera, while the visitors generate an average of 1.05 xG. At least two goals were scored in 80% of Audax’s matches and 67% of La Calera’s, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest and most consistently data-backed option.

Audax Italiano have greater attacking potential, scoring an average of 1.60 goals per match compared with Unión La Calera’s 0.56, while the visitors concede as many as 2.00 goals per game. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of their chances and finishing, with an xG of 1.28 versus the opponents’ 1.05, while they average 4.00 shots on target compared with La Calera’s 2.67. Audax led at the break in 30% of their matches, whereas Unión La Calera were trailing at half-time in 56% of their games and scored just 0.22 goals per match before the interval. After the break, the hosts score an average of 0.90 goals, while the visitors concede 1.22, strengthening the scenario in which Audax maintain or extend their lead. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT 1/1, with the hosts taking the lead before half-time and securing the victory by full-time.