Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt: match statistics

Eintracht holds a clear advantage in possession and efficiency: the visitors average 56% possession versus Augsburg’s 46% and convert 18% of shots into goals, while Augsburg’s conversion rate is 11%; additionally Eintracht fails to score in only 13% of away matches versus 20% of home matches without a goal for Augsburg. Augsburg at home, however, generates better offensive chances: home xG averages 1.47 versus Eintracht’s 1.24 on the road, they register 12.8 shots per match (4.87 on target) versus 10.47 (3.73 on target) and have 33% clean sheets versus 7% for the visitors. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 7 goals each, but Augsburg conceded 11 goals across those five fixtures versus 8 conceded by Eintracht, indicating a deterioration in the hosts’ defensive form. Eintracht on the road scores 1.93 and concedes 2.27 on average, and in the last 5 matches they have a better points pace (1.4 pts vs 1.0 pts for Augsburg), which together with the higher conversion gives them a real advantage. Considering the dominance in possession, higher shot efficiency and better short-term form, I forecast an Eintracht win, although I expect an open game with several goals (average total goals: 4.2 in Eintracht away matches vs 3.13 in Augsburg home matches).

The primary signal for BTTS - Yes is Eintracht’s season rate of 87% versus Augsburg’s 53%, and the fact both teams had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches. Both sides score an average of 1.73 (Augsburg) and 1.93 (Eintracht) goals per game, while conceding 1.53 and 2.27 goals per game this season, which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. xG stands at 1.54 for Augsburg and 1.24 for Eintracht, with xG against of 1.26 and 1.63 respectively, and shots on target of 5.2 vs 3.73 confirm both teams create chances. Eintracht have only 7% clean sheets this season (Augsburg 40%), and in the last 5 matches Augsburg conceded 2.2 goals on average versus 1.6 for Eintracht, so a clean sheet for either side is unlikely. Considering the league average of 3.2 goals and that 60% of Bundesliga matches are BTTS, I assess BTTS probability at 80% vs 20% and recommend a Yes bet.

Based on xG and the opponent’s defense I estimate expected goals: Augsburg 1.59, Eintracht 1.25, total 2.84 goals. With this mean the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 78% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 54% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Season-long metrics reinforce the Over signal: Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Augsburg’s matches and 93% of Eintracht’s, while Over 2.5 in 60% and 73% of their games; additionally BTTS is 53% vs 87% and Eintracht has only 7% clean sheets. Shot and xG statistics confirm offensive activity — Augsburg has xG 1.54 and an average of 5.2 shots on target, Eintracht has xG 1.24 and its defense concedes 1.63 xG per match, which increases the likelihood of goal exchanges. Consequently the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5, estimated probability ~85%), Over 2.5 is rated moderate (~60%), and Over 3.5 remains less likely (~38%).

The most likely scenario given these data is a draw at half-time and an Augsburg victory after 90 minutes (X/1). Eintracht posts strong first-half metrics — averaging 1.13 goals by the break versus Augsburg’s 0.6 and seeing at least one first-half goal in 87% of its matches, which raises the probability of goals in the first half. At the same time Augsburg dominates second halves: it has collected 26 points in second halves and averages 1.73 points in the second half versus Eintracht’s 14 points and 0.93, and has scored 7 goals in minutes 61–75 and 6 goals in 76–90, which favors turnarounds after the break. Additionally the home side has a higher home win rate (47% vs 27%), higher attacking xG (1.54 vs 1.24) and more shots on target (5.2 vs 3.73), so the strongest signal from the data is a half-time draw and an Augsburg win full-time.